“Doesn’t matter if it’s the champion or not. Tomorrow, I’m winning,” declared Renato Moicano at the UFC 311 ceremonial weigh-ins. His words echoed with the fire of a man on the verge of something monumental. In a twist no one saw coming, Islam Makhachev, the lightweight champion, found himself suddenly facing an unexpected opponent at UFC 311!

Arman Tsarukyan, originally slated to challenge for the title, had to withdraw due to a back injury. The wheels of change were set in motion, and Moicano now stands before Makhachev, aiming for a dream opportunity. A chance to topple one of the sport’s most dominant fighters. As such, we asked AI to predict a path to victory for ‘Money’ in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds, and the answers it provided paint an intriguing picture!

1. Leverage striking and distance management

According to AI, Renato Moicano needs to take the initiative when it comes to striking. With a background in Muay Thai and a reach advantage, he has the tools to maintain distance and control the pace. Makhachev, at 5’10” with a 70.5-inch reach, will want to close the gap and impose his wrestling early. But Moicano, standing at 5’11” with a reach of 72 inches, has an opportunity to keep him at bay.

The key to success for ‘Money’? As per the prediction, “Constant lateral movement and feints would help him avoid being cornered and taken down. Look for counters during Makhachev’s takedown entries or in scrambles.”

2. Renato Moicano’s takedown defense is key

Islam Makhachev‘s takedowns are a weapon that could break most fighters. For Moicano to succeed, he must become a fortress in the clinch and on the feet. AI suggests, “Moicano would need to focus heavily on anti-wrestling training to nullify Makhachev’s relentless takedowns. Avoid staying in prolonged clinch positions where Makhachev can set up trips or chain wrestling sequences.”

While he may not be known for his wrestling, the Brazilian does have significant anti-wrestling skills. His third-highest top-position percentage in UFC lightweight history (51.5%) shows that he knows how to work from a dominant position. But avoiding Makhachev’s takedowns in the first place will be crucial.

3. Cardio and conditioning

Although this fight is short notice, Renato Moicano’s prior training for his original opponent, Beneil Dariush’s ground game could give him the edge in dealing with Makhachev’s submission threats. The longer the fight goes, the more dangerous Makhachev becomes. So, what can ‘Money’ do? AI stressed that “Moicano must maintain a high pace and push Makhachev into later rounds, where opportunities to exploit fatigue might arise.”

4. Threatening with submissions

But, if the fight does hit the mat, the Brazilian lightweight challenger’s jiu-jitsu could be a hidden trump card. According to AI, “Moicano has a strong jiu-jitsu game, and he could use that to his advantage if he’s taken down by threatening sweeps, submissions, or scrambling back to his feet. Focus on keeping active guard positions to prevent Makhachev from settling into dominant positions.”

5. Mental and tactical discipline

Perhaps the most important aspect of all is Moicano’s mental toughness. Islam Makhachev excels at capitalizing on mistakes, and Moicano cannot afford to make any. AI urges that Moicano must, “Stay composed under pressure and avoid overcommitting, as Makhachev is excellent at capitalizing on mistakes. Stick to the game plan and adapt as needed based on Makhachev’s adjustments.”

So, what does Renato Moicano need to do to beat Islam Makhachev at UFC 311? According to AI, it’s a near-perfect storm. He must combine his striking, defensive grappling, and creativity to keep the fight in his preferred range. Distance, defense, cardio, and mental discipline—these will be Moicano’s weapons as he steps into the Octagon. But in a fight with such high stakes, can he pull it off? Let us know what you think in the comments below!