It is no secret that careers in the UFC are measured not in years, but in milliseconds. The vanishing instant between a perfect defense and a fight-ending blow. No fighter escapes the pull of decline, that merciless transformation from a top dog to a cautionary tale. And it seems that former heavyweight contender and podcaster Brendan Schaub fears the same for Justin Gaethje going into his UFC 313 clash against Rafael Fiziev. But why does Schaub think so? Well, because of how Gaethje’s latest symphony of violence and Fight of the Year clash with Max Holloway went.

“Justin Gaethje also has to be careful, too, in hindsight. It’s smart for Justin to stay in the card and fight. He’s coming off that knockout loss to Max Holloway and that was brutal. And also, the main takeaway… like Justin wasn’t winning that fight the entire fight. That’s the thing– that fight wasn’t that close. Max Holloway put on a hell of a performance. So my takeaway is, yeah he lost, he got knocked out. I know last second Max pointed down and we all remember that but [what] your takeaway should be is! Justin was getting outclassed that entire fight. Schaub bluntly stated on his ‘Thicc Boy’ podcast.

Well, there is a lot of truth to the former heavyweight’s claims. Just consider the trajectories of legends reduced to shadows of their former selves. Anderson Silva, once the most dominant middleweight in history, transformed from an untouchable wizard of the Octagon to a human target. For a more recent example, consider Tony Ferguson who embodied the sport’s most dramatic fall from grace. After a twelve-fight streak that seemed to defy human limitations, he plummeted through eight consecutive losses.

Moreover, even Israel Adesanya teeters on this razor’s edge. With a 1-4 record in his last five fights, he’s not just losing—he’s witnessing the potential erosion of his dominant self. Nobody—not even the greatest—fights forever! And the science behind this decline is as old as human physiology. Reflexes slow. Punch resistance diminishes. The quantum of recovery between fights shrinks. Fighters don’t just lose fights; they lose fractions of a second—and in a sport measured in split-seconds, that’s everything.

This is why the former comedian feels that UFC 313 is a “kind of a fork in the road for him.” Indeed, by taking on #11 Rafael Fiziev on short notice (after #6 Dan Hooker pulled out), risks Gaethje losing not only a title shot but also sliding down significantly in the rankings. This is not a good position for the 36-year-old, who has, at best, probably a couple of good years in him. But on the other hand, Schaub feels Fiziev is probably the best opponent for ‘The Highlight’ under the circumstances.

Why fighting Rafael Fiziev on short notice is the right call for Justin Gaethje?

UFC 313 will be tricky for Rafael Fiziev, too. After all, the Azerbaijani is coming off consecutive losses (one of them a close split decision loss to Justin Gaethje at UFC 286) and has been inactive for nearly the past year and a half. And that, Schaub feels, means Gaethje is actually making the right choice fighting ‘Ataman’ on short notice.

“Then also there’s an advantage to taking a Fiziev on short notice because the first fight was not an easy fight, not an easy fight not an easy fight at all. And Fiziev has been off for a long time now, he’s taking it on short notice, so you would favor Justin in this fight, you know,” he added.

But the biggest question still remains. Does Justin Gaethje still have it? Was the Holloway fight just an aberration, or is the Arizonan just not as sharp anymore? Most feel that Fiziev was winning the first two rounds, but totally dropped the ball in the third, and Gaethje absolutely battered him to eke out a majority decision victory.

The #11 lightweight must have learned from his mistake and would be better prepared. If Gaethje beats him, he would rightfully be in line for a title shot. But if not, it may be the beginning of the end of Justin Gaethje’s legendary career. What do you think about Schaub’s take on the Gaethje-Fiziev UFC 313 clash?