Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway: Predicting the Unpredictable Winner for the Denounced BMF Title at UFC 300

Look closely, Justin Gaethje was always meant to headline UFC 300. Reference to the 480 BC Battle of Thermopylae, and how The Highlight ever since his UFC debut has had a Spartan-like figure tattooed on his right abdomen. Then there is Max Holloway, destined for greatness and perhaps, for badness.

This should have been the first fight on WhiteBoard when the UFC CEO must’ve stacked the card for this milestone event. If anything, this lightweight clash promises a punch-packed marathon. And with that, if the fight justifies the hype, it can lay to rest the corny and unnecessary prefixes that the BMF Title often sees itself attached to (remember how Islam Makhachev scoffed at this idea?). 

Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway: UFC 300 BMF title fight preview

Props to Max Holloway for taking up this fight. As an underdog (and a promoter of no-sparring fight prep), this is basically a volume puncher pitted against a hard-hitting knockout artist. The Hawaiian will need his A+ game out if he wishes to dim the lights for the reigning ‘Baddest Motherf***er.’ 

Both the fighters are coming off wins in their previous two fights, but ‘Blessed’ would be hungrier to prove himself as this would be his second attempt at glory in the shark tank that is the UFC lightweight division. He has some reasons to come in confident, though. In 2023, while his Fight Night knockout of The Korean Zombie came clean, what impressed more was the victory against Arnold Allen, where Holloway used leg kicks to gain an edge and break Almighty’s 10-fight win streak.

Also, much like Dustin Poirier, actually doubly so, Max has been a cardio machine, and that is something Gaethje will need to keep in check, if he is to dominate. And how will he? Well, if UFC 291 taught anyone anything, it was just how big a chess player Gaethje is inside the Octagon. We all remember how ‘The Diamond,’ who in 2019 defeated Holloway in a brute fashion, dragging him deep underwater, saw his face flushed as he missed the trap Gaethje laid for him. 

That’s brilliance, which can topple any cardio, in a snap, for a Herb Dean to force a stoppage.

Why should the winner of this fight bother Dustin Poirier? 

Justin Gaethje has his roadmap pretty clear from here. If he manages a W against Max at the same event as Charles Oliveira potentially defeats Arman Tsarukyan, the two stipulated winners are poised to battle it out for the ultimate metal against pound-for-pound champ in Islam Makhachev. 

On the contrary, and against the betting odds (ignoring Poirier’s pick), if the 32-YO bags a win, it is going to make things interesting. Probably then, the man who thinks the sport “goes by you fast”, will have Dana White matching him against the undefeated and Conor McGregor-hungry Ilia Topuria. 

Read More: UFC 300: Justin Gaethje’s Biggest Issue Against Max Holloway Exposed

And in all this, our comeback king in Dustin Poirier will have something to lose if Gaethje wins. It will mean the former UFC Interim Lightweight Champion has bagged back-to-back wins against two of the “dying breed”, as we know them in the words of Mr. Significant Strikes. 

UFC 300 Prediction: Max Holloway for a R4 knockout win in Las Vegas

With the risk of putting off many, this prediction has come at the back of Max Holloway’s shining resume. While Joe Rogan feels, it’s a 50-50, in my opinion, it’s a 51-49. True, Justin Gaethje is a clear knockout bulldozer with 20 KOs in his 25 wins so far (that’s a crazy 80% of it), but his UFC 300 opponent has never once been knocked out. And mind it, the former UFC Featherweight Champion has been fighting each year since 2012.

Having put on the weight the “right way”, this punch enforcer can take shots and keep going. Memory serves, how Khabib Nurmagomedov ate the headshots from Gaethje and kept going, ultimately submitting him in R2. 

No doubt, the kicks from the 35-YO will be a lethal weapon, and his challenger can not afford to take them continuously for five rounds. But one of his strengths, that pace in the fights, will see an equally subdued threat from the other end. Remember that both carry 7+ strikes landed per minute. It will be a showdown coming from two adrenaline-fueled exchangers. 

To conclude it all, if only Max Holloway can charge Gaethje with some shock combinations (moving away from being predictable), the man (possibly in floral shorts) will hold the Belt. This will cement the legacy for both Holloway and the BMF Title.

Do you instead see Gaethje winning? Feel free to ridicule me, the opinion-maker, in the comments.