Since winning the belt at UFC 295, Alex Pereira has faced the UFC’s toughest challengers. But none bigger than this Saturday. Why? Because Pereira is about to face Magomed Ankalaev, arguably the most well-rounded fighter he’s faced at 205 lbs, outside of Jan Blachowicz. But if you think Ankalaev will dominate with his wrestling, think again – for two reasons. First, I don’t think Ankalaev really wants to fight Pereira on the mat. Second, Alex Pereira’s grappling is not as bad as you’d think!

Can ‘Poatan’ wrestle? You bet he can. Most UFC fans believe that Alex Pereira is a kickboxer from Brazil who made it to the UFC to eventually throw fists against his “eternal rival” Israel Adesanya. Sure, UFC matchmakers probably saw Pereira as a natural opponent for Izzy considering he was 2-0 against him, but no! Pereira was never “just” a kickboxer. He had a 4-1 MMA record before joining the UFC. His first MMA bout was in 2015, against a man named Quemel Ottoni, who managed to submit Pereira in the third round. Despite losing his MMA debut, ‘Poatan’ went on to brutally knockout his next four opponents. 

In the UFC, Pereira has shown glimpses of what he could do when forced into clinch exchanges. Let’s not forget who welcomed Alex Pereira to the light heavyweight division. Former 205 lbs champ, Jan Blachowicz – a man known for his brute strength and ability to dictate the fight on feet and on the ground. Pereira stuffed 5 of Blachowicz’s takedown attempts. While Blachowicz was clearly a much better wrestler than Pereira, he could not do much with his wrestling, besides taking Pereira down on a few occasions, wearing him out, and landing a few shots. When Poatan fought Khalil Rountree Jr., he surprised many by scoring a takedown of his own, showing that he was constantly improving his wrestling. He also managed to maintain top control briefly, landing shots.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying Ankalaev doesn’t have an edge against Pereira in the wrestling department. He surely does. Yes, he outwrestled Nikita Krylov, but the fight still went the distance, and Krylov even landed a takedown of his own. In his fight against Jan Blachowicz, Ankalaev secured 2 out of his 10 takedown attempts. And this fight too, went to the judges. The last 2 finishes Ankalaev has had – Johnny Walker who’s not even in the Top 10, and an aging Anthony Smith back in 2022. Alex Pereira on the other hand, has finished 4 of his last 5 fights, all former champions (except Rountree Jr.), and all within 2 years, making him one of the most active champions the UFC has ever seen. So don’t be surprised if Alex Pereira steps into the Octagon as the betting favorite. 

Coming back to Pereira’s wrestling, he is not taking Ankalaev lightly. He is training with Geovanis Palacious, a former Olympic wrestler from Cuba. Just watch the video posted by Fighting Nerds on Instagram. You’ll see how much Poatan has evolved as a mixed martial artist, owing to his ability to learn grappling.

When Palacious attempts a lateral drop, Pereira shuts it down and even fends off the follow-up double leg. Pereira can also be seen trying to trip Palacious and going for a guillotine. When Palacious took Pereira’s back momentarily, the light heavyweight champ pushed the Olympian and rolled away masterfully. So, can Alex Pereira pass his toughest test so far in Ankalaev? 

For Alex Pereira, It’s Simple: Stick to the Game Plan

They say, “You can’t teach a grown man to wrestle”. While it may be true in a pure wrestling discipline, in a mixed martial arts setup, we have seen from time and time again how precision strikers have come to dominate the sport. Israel Adesanya, Jose Aldo, Junior Dos Santos, Conor McGregor, I could go on. If Pereira stuffs the takedowns and uses his elite striking, you will hear Bruce Buffer scream “AND STILL…”. Not convinced? Remember when Ankalaev got dropped in the second round against Thiago Santos?

Santos was 38 years old when he fought Ankalaev. He is an absolute powerhouse. He used his blitzing speed to land a wild left hook that dropped the Dagestani. What was Ankalaev’s immediate natural response? The minute he got rocked, he grabbed Santos. Against Pereira, resisting that natural instinct to wrestle won’t be easy when the striking game goes south. Pereira is a calculated executioner. Remember how Pereira systematically broke down Khalil Rountree Jr.? He doesn’t look for a finish, he creates it with his precision. Ankalaev has been vocal about how he would knock Alex Pereria out and doesn’t need his wrestling. If I were in his corner, I would not want to see him play to the tunes of Pereira’s stand-up game. So why can’t Ankalaev just stand and trade with Alex Pereira?

Everyone has a plan until they eat a few nasty leg kicks! When Alex Pereria fought Jan Blachowicz, he landed a whopping 23 leg kicks, immobilizing the former champ pretty evidently. If Ankalaev strikes from the outside, Pereira’s got the advantage. If he steps into the mid-striking range, Pereira still has the advantage. Pereira always controls the range. Sure, Ankalaev has lightning-fast hands. But as Conor McGregor once said, “Precision beats power, and timing beats speed”. Out of Pereira’s 12 MMA wins, 10 have come by way of knockout. The finish rate speaks for itself. So what does Ankalaev need to do to win? Level change! Ankalaev should use his heavy hands to keep Pereira engaged upstairs and shoot for a takedown. Challenging a decorated kickboxer in his own game? Bad idea.

Do I think Ankalaev will stand up against Pereira throughout the fight? I don’t think so. Jan Blachowicz’s leg kicks forced Ankalaev to wrestle. Ankalaev is a great counterpuncher and relies heavily on his straight left and check left hook, especially when his opponents close in on him. That strategy won’t work against an equally gifted counterpuncher who also happens to throw some of the most unpredictable leg kicks in the game, like Alex Pereria. So will Ankalaev wrestle Pereira? Absolutely. He is a former Sambo world champion after all, and this is the moment he’s been chasing since he signed the UFC contract – the ultimate title fight. From Jon Jones to Oleksandr Usyk, everyone wants a piece of Pereira. And this Saturday, Ankalaev gets the chance to take it all away. It all comes down to one thing – has Pereira sharpened his takedown defense enough? Because he’s going to need it at UFC 313.

Who do you think is going to win at UFC 313? Do you agree with my analysis? Tell me in the comments below.