“Islam, if I want to, I can finish you.if I want to, I can knock you out. I’ll make it look easy. [See] you soon” – Ilia Topuria made this statement moments after Islam Makhachev got his hand raised at UFC 311. Most of you might already know that the Georgian’s ambitions are towards being a multi-weight champion. His primary target is the lightweight champion, but he’s willing to go through Charles Oliveira to earn a title shot if he has to. But the question is, can he?
The featherweight champion blitzed through Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway in 2024. Two title fights, and he did not let his opponents see the championships. But the 155 lbs division is a whole different ball game. It’s the deepest shark tank of the UFC. So, for today, let’s try and guess his luck against the two opponents he has called out from lightweight.
Ilia Topuria did what Islam Makhachev couldn’t!
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Both Topuria and Makhachev had the chance to go up against the former featherweight champion, Alexander Volkanovski. And both of them succeeded in defeating the former pound-for-pound best. However, there was a slight, but important difference in the victories of Topuria and Makhachev.
Islam Makhachev fought Alexander Volkanovski on two occasions. It was UFC 284 when they faced each other for the first time inside the Octagon. Volk asked Makhachev to put his lightweight title on the line, while the Dagestani asked him to wager his P4P #1 position. The fight went on for 5 rounds as the Dagestani tried his best to defend his lightweight title. One thing that the entire fighting community noticed was the tough competition ‘The Great’ gave Makhachev. Of course, the Australian foodie-fighter had prepared well for the fight. But not many thought the former featherweight champ would be a strenuous fight for Makhachev. Nevertheless, the Dagestani champ won via a unanimous decision.
Makhachev and Volkanovski met once again at UFC 294. The bets were the same – lightweight title against P4P #1 status. But this was a fight that ‘The Great’ accepted on short notice. He had limited time to prepare and had no training camp. And Makhachev exploited this as he knocked Volkanovski out cold with a head kick and hammer fists in the first round.
On the other hand, Ilia Topuria faced Volkanovski once and knocked him out with a right hook in the second round of their fight at UFC 298. This showed the striking power that ‘El Matador’ had. Defeating a well-prepared Volkanovski with ease was something that Makhachev never really brought to fruition. But Topuria did it and he did it well.
There is one point of contention though – many argue that ‘Volk’ did not take enough time off after the Makhachev KO and rushed back into the Topuria fight. But it’s not just their fights against Volkanovski that differentiate them. Other aspects can show the difference in strength between Topuria and the lightweight legends. And that can be revealed by taking a look at their previous fights.
‘El Matador’ looks invincible, Makhachev and Oliveira don’t
The Spaniard loves to finish his fights. Out of his 16-fight undefeated run, he has won only 2 by decisions. Be it Max Holloway, Volkanovski, or Bryce Mitchell, ‘El Matador’ has dominated his fights. On top of that, he became the only fighter to knock Holloway out. His dominance remains one reason he received 4 Performance of the Night bonuses and 1 Fight of the Night bonus in his last 5 fights. If we look at his performances, Topuria clearly looks like an unconquerable fighter.
However, the same can’t be said for Makhachev or Charles Oliveira. Let’s talk about ‘Do Bronx’ first. The Brazilian has been facing a decline in his fighting career. Makhachev defeated him with an arm triangle to snatch away the lightweight title and ended his winning streak. His next loss came when he fought Arman Tsarukyan and the Armenian won by a split decision. Oliveira’s power was already in question. But, when Michael Chandler knocked him down and was almost about to KO him at UFC 309, these speculations became certain.
Meanwhile, Makhachev seemed to dominate his fights. But that was because most of his opponents didn’t have enough time to prepare, as it was all set up on short notice. Not that we are saying it’s the Russian’s fault, just that it played to his advantage. Yes, we’re talking about Makhachev’s fights against Volkanovski (second), and Renato Moicano.
Dustin Poirier and Charles Oliveira were the only ones who had a camp to prepare specifically for the Dagestani. On the fence about retirement when he was gifted the battle for the title, Poirier came in and put a beating on Makhachev and made him look human – just like Volk did the first time. To Islam’s credit, he proved he could dig deep when he got the finish late in the final round. Poirier proved he could escape several of the Dagestani’s takedown attempts. And if we talk about Moicano, ‘Money’ was prepared to face Beneil Dariush, not Makhachev. Of course, he was going to lose a 1-day short notice fight.
Now it’s time to tackle the elephant in the room. Topuria has a strong background in the ground game. But is it enough to stand strong against someone like Makhachev and Oliveira in the lightweight division?
Can Topuria neutralize Makhachev and Oliveira’s grappling?
Topuria began training in Greco-Roman wrestling, as his father introduced him to the fighting world when he was just 4. When he moved to Spain, he started training in BJJ and everything that made him an MMA fighter. Having a father who was a wrestler himself certainly came as a blessing for ‘El Matador’.
Makhachev, however, has trained himself in Sambo, which can be considered a hybrid of wrestling, grappling, and striking. He has dominated the Octagon with those weapons in his arsenal for a long while. Oliveira, however, is prompt in BJJ. But Makhachev had already proved that his wrestling is stronger than Oliveira’s BJJ. And if he can defeat Makhachev’s wrestling, Topuria can definitely claim a win against ‘Do Bronx’.
The second thing that comes into play is attributes – specifically, reach and weight. Makhachev recently confessed that he weighs around 182 lbs on fight night. Other lightweights like Oliveira and Poirier also cut down from around the 180 lbs -190 lbs range for their bouts. Topuria is safe here.
Back in December 2024, his coach Jorge Clement explained how the drastic weight cuts to featherweight is making a lightweight move more appealing. “We decided because he wants to feel better. Sometimes I see Ilia in 85 kilos, and he needs to be 66. We do a very big weight cut,” he told Submission Radio. These cuts are going to get harder with age and Topuria moves by logic. 85 kg is around 187 lbs. That means he walks around like a normal lightweight.
As for reach, well, we save what he did to Max Holloway, even though he was the shorter fighter. Islam (5’11”) and Charles (5’10”) struggled against shorter opponents like Volkanovski (5’6″) and Michael Chandler (5’8″). Ilia stands 5 ft. 8 inches tall and KO’d a 5’11” Holloway. So, he’s safe there too. He just has to watch out for a head kick like the one Jai Herbert dropped him with.
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So all that’s left for Topuria to do is move to the lightweight division and fight Makhachev/Oliveira. With a strong base in Greco-Roman wrestling and BJJ, we can expect ‘El Matador’ to give both of them tough competition. Plus, the Spaniard has dynamite in his hands and the lightweight stalwarts are both susceptible to getting caught. Could he actually claim a win against the lightweights? Well, that remains to be seen.
What’s your prediction regarding Topuria’s matchup against Makhachev or Oliveira? Do you think the Spaniard can maintain his dominance in the lightweight division? Let us know what you think in the comments down below.
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Can Ilia Topuria's striking power dethrone Makhachev and Oliveira in the lightweight division?
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