The UFC lightweight division is a shark tank, and Islam Makhachev is the great white circling at the top. But with the champ on a brief hiatus, thanks to Ramadan, the waters are getting choppier. Contenders are lining up. Arman Tsarukyan_the #1 ranked challenger. Then we have Justin Gaethje, fresh off a brutal win over Rafael Fiziev. And let’s not forget the champ who just dropped his featherweight belt to chase gold at 155.

So, who gets the shot? Even Dana White is shrugging. “Well, you guys know there are a lot of different factors that play out when we start talking about who’s fighting next,” is the head honcho’s response. But haven’t we heard this song and dance before? Injuries, timing, locations and what not. Like Dana wouldn’t move mountains if he really wanted to make a fight happen.

But let’s talk about the fighters instead, because they sure have opinions. When The Schmo asked the Armenian how a fight between Makhachev and Ilia Topuria would play out, his response was simple, “It’s a tough fight. Ilia, he has better striking, like good boxing. I don’t know, he never fought with guys who can wrestle very well like Islam. So we’ll say it’s a 50/50 fight.”

Fifty-fifty? Against the Dagestani kingpin? A bold take. But Arman isn’t wrong, Topuria’s striking has been a thing of beauty. He flatlined Max Holloway (a man who had never been knocked out before) at UFC 308 and made Alexander Volkanovski look like a fish out of water at UFC 298. His hands? Fast. His power? Undeniable. His confidence? Borderline delusional. He’s already teasing a ‘big fight’ on social media, and some even thought it could be Conor McGregor (spoiler, it’s definitely not). But is ‘El Matador’ really next in line?

Well, the UFC boss isn’t exactly laying out a roadmap. “I don’t know, I don’t know. Probably,” was all he had to say about Topuria’s next move. Not exactly the resounding green light fans were hoping for. And if we’re being honest, Makhachev himself isn’t convinced either.

Does Islam Makhachev have a preferred challenger?

While Topuria is angling for the fastest title shot in history, Makhachev is looking elsewhere. In fact, he’s looking up a weight class. “Oh man, I’m tired of giving chances to small guys,” Makhachev said before UFC 311. But don’t get the champ wrong, he’s not dismissing Ilia’s skills. “It’s nothing against him. He’s a good fighter, he’s a good, skilled fighter, but I don’t want to give him a chance. I need a second belt,” the Russian explained.

His coach, Javier Mendez, has a different idea. He believes there’s a ‘perfect’ matchup for Makhachev next, Justin Gaethje. “Fantastic, then it’s Justin Gaethje. We’ll focus on Justin Gaethje. That would be ideally for us be the perfect matchup based on his standing and what he’s done,” Mendez told Submission Radio. And honestly? He’s got a point. ‘The Highlight’ is ranked #3, coming off a statement win, and is the kind of fighter that sells fights.

So, where does that leave ‘El Matador’? If Makhachev has his way, Topuria needs to get in line and prove himself at lightweight first. And that brings us back to Arman’s “50/50” comment. Would that really hold up if Makhachev just sticks to the ‘father’s plan’ instilled in him by his camp? Seems like yes.

Sure, the Georgian’s striking steals the spotlight, but let’s not pretend his ground game is an afterthought. The guy isn’t just dangerous on the feet, he can handle himself just fine on the mat too. With a strong base in wrestling and a black belt Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, he’s not the type to panic if the fight hits the ground. We’ve seen him dominate there before, just ask Bryce Mitchell, who dropped and submitted with an arm triangle choke at UFC 282. Slick transitions, relentless control, and a knack for finding submissions? Yeah, he’s got all that. So, if Makhachev thinks he’ll just ragdoll Ilia with ease, well, that might not be the case.

So, what do you think?  If this fight ever does happen, does Ilia’s grappling give him a real shot, or does Islam’s elite control still tilt the odds in his favor? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!