“This isn’t a career, this is an opportunity,” – Dana White once summed up the UFC in these now-famous lines. After Dan Hooker was forced out of his UFC 313 co-main event, a massive opportunity presented itself to UFC stars from the 155 lbs division. As most of you might know by now, Rafael Fiziev clinched it with both hands. But some big names had the opportunity to step and (justifiably) turned it down. Justin Gaethje has now respectfully acknowledged the lot and dropped some truth bombs on how this UFC 286 rematch came to be.

He wrote on X, “Arman and Charles understandably said no. Max and Dustin understandably said no. Moicano got the call and said no. Props to Fiziev for volunteering to fly across the world and take this fight. Big risk here for me taking this rematch against and elite striker. Life’s a trip. Best live show on earth going down March 8th #UFC313”

“Understandably” – Yes, Justin, understandably. Max Holloway went toe-to-toe with you at UFC 300 for five rounds and won via KO. He’s coming off a KO loss to Ilia Topuria, which made him permanently shift to lightweight. It does not make sense for him to fight you again and short notice and risk his lightweight prospects. Charles Oliveira has already beaten you and is sitting on a win over Michael Chandler. He would not want a drastic weight cut and risk his title prospects against the hardest hitter at 155 lbs.

Dustin Poirier has been adamant that his next fight will be his retirement fight and will likely go down in New Orleans. Why should he take a short notice bout with you (as awesome as that would be) and risk an unceremonious (and possibly bloody) send-off? This brings us to Renato Moicano, who publicly called for the short-notice opportunity. ‘Money’ had tweeted, “2 weeks is good! I have enough time for 2 or 3 sparring sessions! I will be ready if they call! #ufc.” Was it the money? Did he have a catchweight bout in mind while the UFC wanted lightweight? Who knows?

That brings us down to Arman Tsarukyan. The prodigal son of the lightweight division. Fans (and Dana) have still not forgiven him for the last-minute pullout at UFC 311. This would have been the perfect redemption. But he declined and fans wanted to know why. Gaethje, never one to complain, had a reasonable response to a fan who asked the same.

“That’s a big weight cut on short notice,” he said, “To be fair it takes me 8- 12 weeks to properly get my body prepared for the weight cut. I fight around 175 like most lightweights. Hard to understand but that’s the way it goes 👊”

A short-notice bout against a star like Justin Gaethje is no mean feat. The whole world knows it. You’re talking about the guy who came in with bare preparation to fight Tony Ferguson at UFC 249. Gaethje was one-half of the main event that brought the UFC back during the pandemic in 2020. But there’s more.

He battered Tony Ferguson (who had a long and full training camp in preparation for Khabib Nurmagomedov) for four and a half rounds and won the interim lightweight title. This time, it’s Gaethje in Ferguson’s shoes and Fiziev in Gaethje’s. A closer look at the numbers from their first fight at UFC 286 will tell you just how risky this fight is for ‘The Highlight’ as well.

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev 2: What do the numbers tell us?

Gaethje vs. Fiziev at UFC 286 was memorable for a very interesting reason. Justin is an accomplished D1 All-American wrestler but always faced heat for not utilizing his skill set in his MMA bouts. At UFC 286, he landed his first-ever UFC takedown on Rafael Fiziev. And that was the key to his win.

Gaethje won the bout via majority decision and did not leave any doubt that he had the edge in the fight. Don’t get me wrong. Fiziev brought the fight to him and went toe-to-toe. Gaethje landed 103 out of 171 significant strikes against Fiziev who landed 97 of 169. That’s 60% accuracy against a slightly lower 57%. Fiziev landed more strikes in the second round (32/49 against Gaethje’s 27/48); the first was close, and the third was Gaethje’s by a decent margin. The former interim champion was also landing more accurately than ‘Ataman.’

So, what can we expect next weekend in Vegas? Gaethje is coming into the full after participating in a full camp. He was preparing to go five rounds with Dan Hooker, so Fiziev may not want to strike with him recklessly. Plus, he has been out for almost a year and a half since his second-round leg injury in the Mateusz Gamrot bout in September 2023. This begs the question – what has Fiziev been up to in his long layoff?

If he has been working on a return and is in good shape, this fight could surprise Justin Gaethje and the fans. If not, he might want to tread cautiously. Gaethje’s leg kicks could send him right back to another layoff. Or his right hand could send him straight to the canvas. Last time, it seemed three rounds were too less. This time, it could be too much.

What do you think? Will the UFC 313 co-main event surprise us? And what are your thoughts on Gaethje’s revelations? Let us know in the comments.