The UFC is kicking off 2025 with an intriguing rematch at 115 pounds between the #6-ranked Mackenzie Dern and #8-ranked Amanda Ribas. As with every matchup, the fight world is busy predicting who will win the bout this time around, especially considering this is a rematch. The pair first met at the start of their UFC careers back in 2019 where Ribas earned a unanimous decision victory over Dern after 15 minutes of the bout. Despite her BJJ accolades, Dern was not able to take Ribas down and failed in six attempts to do so.

Many things have changed since they first met inside the Octagon. Amanda Ribas has climbed her way to the top 10 in both strawweight and flyweight divisions. On the other hand, Mackenzie Dern is also at a higher rank in the division’s top 10 as of now. After almost six years both of them are improved versions of themselves, raising the stakes for this rematch which has the makings to be an action-packed performance. While fans, veterans, and analysts are busy breaking down the fight, we asked AI to predict the winner of this bout and got some interesting answers. Let’s have a close look.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas AI fight breakdown

Amanda Ribas, 13-5-0, won the first encounter in 2019 but in this rematch, we can expect a variety of scenarios to play out, considering both fighters’ evolution. While Ribas one the first match, Dern has had more fights in the division. Furthermore, Dern racked up seven wins and four losses since fighting Ribas, while the latter racked up five wins and four losses. She is in much better shape than she was back in 2019 and has also improved her striking over the years. Since losing to Ribas, she picked up wins against Nina Nunes, Tecia Torres, Angela Hill, and Loopy Godinez but her wrestling game still needs a bit of polishing.

This means that she will be prone to taking a victory on her standing stance which has proven to be difficult before. She has had to struggle against opponents like Yan Xiaonan and Jessica Andrade. Her opponent Ribas on the other hand has been lagging off in terms of consistency. She was fluctuating between 115 lbs and 125 lbs but is still a stellar striker with a strong takedown. So the main question is whether Dern can take Ribas to the ground and keep her there for a long time.

The only problem is that Amanda Ribas is a crisp striker, having a strong grappling background with judo as her base. Furthermore, she has four wins by KO while her opponent has none. Furthermore, Dern has fought and looked like a fish out of water against dangerous strikers like Yan Xiaonan and Jessica Andrade. So if this fight remains standing, there’s a good chance Ribas could win. But if Dern takes Ribas to the ground, then she can put herself in a prime position to exact revenge and win the fight. But what does AI have to say about the outcome of this fight? Let’s find out.

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2: Who Wins? AI prediction

According to AI, when it comes to Amanda Ribas, her strength lies in the stand-up department. She is a more polished striker, and as per AI, has better movement with solid fundamentals, using her jab to set up combinations along with kicks. However, the only weakness she has is her striking defense against heavy hitters like Marina Rodriguez.

Dern’s strengths are her improved striking defense with world-class jiu-jitsu and an amazing submission game. However, even though her striking has improved significantly under Jason Parillo, it remains the weaker aspect of her game. She is aggressive but not as technical as her opponents generally, and Ribas still has the upper hand in the stand-up department

AI also predicts that this rematch would potentially be a close contest but Ribas’ evolved striking defense and overall MMA arsenal might give her an advantage. However, if the fight goes to the mat Dern can find success from multiple positions, especially with arm bars and triangle chokes. But let’s not count Amanda Ribas out just yet. She also has a strong grappling ground since she is a black belt in judo and BJJ. She can hold her defense aggressively on the mat but is not likely to engage in extended grappling exchanges given their difference in BJJ skills.

Now why is Amanda Ribas predicted to have an upper hand constantly? This is because she has an edge when it comes to wrestling and has shown a consistent ability to land takedowns and control her opponents. Dern doesn’t have offensive wrestling – an obvious weak point – and struggles to get the fight to the ground, instead relying on her opponent’s mistakes. Interestingly both fighters have impeccable cardio. However, Ribas’ striking-heavy style might allow her to conserve energy better than Dern, who spends a lot of energy hunting for submissions.

So, all in all, as per AI, this fight likely hinges on Ribas’ ability to keep distance and keep the fight as far away from the mat as possible. Mackenzie Dern will try to take the fight to the ground and bring Ribas to deep waters but you can be assured that the latter can defend herself well, and might nullify Dern’s ground threats. Interestingly, the AI also has a predicted score, with Amanda Ribas winning via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28).

How likely is AI to get these predictions right? Do you think AI’s assessment of both fighters is fair? The rematch which was years in the making was going to happen at UFC Tampa but got rescheduled. But now, this mega bout is going to be the headliner in the first UFC card of 2025 at UFC Vegas 101. Are you ready to see the showdown? Let us know who you think will emerge victorious.