Islam Makhachev has already made his intentions clear to move up a weight class and get a second belt. However, Belal Muhammad, a fellow ‘Team Khabib’ training partner, as the current 170 lbs champion, makes his plan theoretically unfeasible. But before going for an eventual second title, Makhachev has an important night ahead of him. On January 18, the Dagestani ace headlines UFC 311, in a rematch against Arman Tsarukyan for the lightweight title.

In the first meeting between the two, back in 2019, Khabib Nurmagomedov’s pupil prevailed over Tsarukyan via decision. But what does the second fight look like? Will the reigning 155lbs champion be able to retain his title as the kingpin of the division? Well, we took the help of AI to find out the answer to this question. So, without further ado, let’s find out what AI predicted for the upcoming high-adrenaline clash!

How will Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2 go down?

Islam Makhachev enters this bout with an impressive 26-1-0 professional record. He did so after going undefeated for more than 9 years, resulting in 14 consecutive victories, the last four of which were for the lightweight title. In addition, his preferred form of winning is by making his opponents tap out.

From the looks of it, these statistics make it almost impossible for Makhachev to lose, and he is a strong favorite to win. However, you simply cannot rule out Arman Tsarukyan. The Armenian may not receive the media attention that other lightweight fighters do, but there is no doubt that ‘Ahalkalakets’ is one of the fiercest fighters in his division. He has had only two defeats in his 11 UFC fights so far, one of which came against the champion.

In fact, Tsarukyan lost his two fights via decision; therefore, no one has been able to knock him down to date. This is a streak that the Armenian expects to keep, so his main goal for the fight would be to survive by staying on his feet, as he will most likely attempt to win the fight via decision.

Islam Makhachev or Arman Tsarukyan, who wins? AI Prediction

Round 1:

The fight starts with both fighters being as cautious of their approach. After all, they are aware of the fact that the two are elite fighters and any error committed can prove to be lethal. Arman Tsarukyan tests Islam Makhachev with some quick kicks and crisp combinations, but the lightweight champion perfectly showcases his Dagestani mindset by staying calm under relentless pressure and using feints. Late in the round, Makhachev secures a trip takedown and establishes top control. (10-9 Islam Makhachev)

Round 2:

Arman Tsarukyan, well versed with the constant takedown attempts by Makhachev now shows some really impressive takedown defense and surprises the lightweight champion with some takedowns of his own. However, Makhachev’s clinch work and ability to contain Tsarukyan against the cage proved decisive. He delivers effective knees and punches, maintaining a slight edge in control time. (10–9 Islam Makhachev)

Round 3:

By the third round, Tsarukyan’s footwork improves, as the Armenian fighter now shifts the momentum. He uses his quickness and footwork to outstrike Makhachev, landing clean combinations and a powerful right hand that temporarily stuns the champion. Makhachev attempts a takedown but fails to ground Tsarukyan, who finishes the round as the clear dominator. (10–9 Arman Tsarukyan)

Round 4:

In the fourth round, Islam Makhachev slows the pace of the bout and relies on his grappling experience. The Dagestani takes down Arman Tsarukyan and continues to dominate from the top, moving to half-guard and threatening submissions. While the Georgian defends well, he spends the majority of the round on his back, unable to mount much offense. (10–9 Islam Makhachev)

Round 5:

Knowing that the fight is currently in favor of the Dagestani, Tsarukyan goes berserk. He hits Makhachev with a spinning elbow and head kick. However, we cannot ignore the fact that Makhachev developed a granite chin under Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov. The champion maintains his composure, securing a crucial takedown in the closing minutes to counter Tsarukyan’s offense. Despite the challenger’s late push, Makhachev makes it to the end. (10–9 Arman Tsarukyan)

Final prediction

Fans will expect a hard-fought encounter at UFC 311 that will surely let everyone know how far the two fighters have come since their last encounter. While Arman Tsarukyan is much more dynamic when it comes to his attack and will surely put Makhachev to the test, the champion’s experience and ability to perform under pressure give him a slight advantage.

AI predicts that this fight will go the distance, with Islam Makhachev retaining his lightweight title for a record fourth time, however, only by a narrow margin. Arman Tsarukyan’s improvements make for a competitive and exciting match, but it is the Dagestani who ultimately wins out in this high-stakes fight. But what do you think? Do you agree with the prediction? Let us know in the comments.