UFC Fight Night: Lewis VS. Oleinik- Prediction: Derrick Lewis VS. Aleksei Oleinik

The UFC heavyweight division takes center stage at the final UFC Fight Night ahead of UFC 252. Former UFC heavyweight title challenger Derrick Lewis takes on seasoned veteran Aleksei Oleinik. The bout will pit the striker against the wrestler, with the 35-year-old Lewis having a slight edge as he will be the younger competitor. A win for Lewis could see him move past Curtis Blaydes in the heavyweight rankings.

Derrick Lewis

‘The Black Beast’ has claimed 23 professional wins in his career, with 18 coming by knockout. Also, he can take a mean punch, which can be seen from his record, as he remains the last man to beat Francis Ngannou. He lasted three rounds against ‘The Predator’ and claimed the victory as per the judges’ scorecards. 

Lewis has submitted just once in his decade-long professional career. This came in his only championship fight to date, where Daniel Cormier applied a fight-ending rear-naked choke. The Black Beast’s opponent will present him a large submission threat, but given how his last fight went, it seems unlikely to see him pull off the upset. 

Aleksei Oleinik

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Oleinik will mark ‘The Boa Constrictor’s 74th professional match in a 24-year career. The Russian fighter has a history of submission wins and has claimed 46/59 wins in this fashion. Before the split decision victory against Fabricio Werdum at UFC 249, Oleinik had secured his last 5 wins by submitting his opponent. 

However, the UFC 249 outing leads fans to play down his chances ahead of the Derrick Lewis clash. This is because of ‘Vai Cavalo’ growing into the match and being the better fighter as the fight progressed. 

UFC Fight Night: Prediction

Cardio will play a major role in this fight. Lewis has claimed that he will come out “all ba**s blazing.” This is an indicator that he will be set to dismantle ‘The Boa Constrictor.’ The fourth-ranked heavyweight contender’s game plan would be to avoid getting taken down early. He has a takedown defense of 53%, which should hold him in good stead ahead in the first round, when Oleinik will be at his sharpest. 

Read: “I’m Going To Come Out Ba**s Blazing”- Derrick Lewis Sends a Stern Warning to Aleksei Oleinik

‘The Boa Constrictor’ averaged 2.2 submissions per minute in the UFC, which is a testament to his incredible skills. He doesn’t restrict himself to just one hold, with maneuvers like the Ezekiel choke, rear-naked choke, armbar, and the triangle choke a part of his deep arsenal.  

Oleinik lands 3.72 strikes per minute. However, this is because he has his opponent pinned for a large duration of the fight. The stat dwarfs Lewis’ 2.52 strikes per minute. Besides landing more strikes, Oleinik even absorbs more strikes than his younger opponent. 

Should Lewis get going, it seems tough to see the 43-year-old Oleinik taking a lot of punishment. However, he has a chance should he take a leaf out of Fabricio Werdum’s book. Werdum submitted Alexander Gustafsson in the first-round on the last Fight Island fight card. 

It’s all Lewis’ right from the start, and his chances of winning increase as the fight goes longer. 

Prediction: Derrick lewis to win via TKO (3rd round)

Sources: Aleksei Oleinik-Fight History, Aleksei Oleinik-UFC Stats, Derrick Lewis- Fight History, Derrick Lewis-UFC Stats