UFC Fight Night 158: Justin Gaethje vs Donald Cerrone Prediction And Fight Analysis

Justin Gaethje vs Donald Cerrone. One of the highly anticipated matchups in the lightweight division. And here is the Justin Gaethje vs Donald Cerrone Prediction.

We have Gaethje who has made his name in the world of MMA as one of the most aggressive fighters. He has a nickname of “Highlights” and his recent knockout victories against James Vick and Edson Barboza justifies that name.

His opponent this Saturday will be the UFC veteran, Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, a household name among MMA fans. 10 knockout victories and 17 submission victories in his career just shows what Cerrone brings into the octagon.

So how these two warriors would fair against each other?

Justin Gaethje:

Striking:
Now, if you watch Gaethje fight, then you may think he is a wild man and he just moves forward and throws punches. And that is the farthest thing from the truth. Agreed, he is more aggressive than anyone else in the lightweight division, but he is a smart fighter. The changes he has done in his gameplan has shown good results in his last two fight.

Boxing:
His overhand right might be lethal for Cerrone cause Cerrone tends to let his guard down when he throws a kick. And we know Gaethje will take a shot to land that powerful right hand.
Forward Pressure:
Gaethje will put pressure on you like nobody else in the lightweight division. He will always move forward no matter what. He will take a few punches to land some. That’s how Gaethje fights.
Closing the distance:
Also, Gaethje is good at covering distance. He closed the gap against James Vick very quickly and easily.

 

Leg Kicks:
What complements Gaethje’s boxing very well is his leg kicks. His leg kicks are like getting hit on the leg with a baseball bat. He traded kicks with the best kicker in the game, Edson Barboza and he did a lot of damage.
Wrestling:
Not a lot of people give Gaethje the credit he deserves for his excellent wrestling skills and rightfully so. He never tries to take his opponent down and wrestle him for five straight rounds. It’s safe to assume that he won’t be doing that against Cerrone either. However, this is a tool in his arsenal.

Donald Cerrone:

Striking:
Predominantly Cerrone gets his knockouts from kicks. However, his boxing is as good as his kicking game if not better. He uses his jabs to manage distance as he did against Al Iaquinta. He stops his opponents from coming inside with body kicks and knees. Considering, Gaethje always moves forward, Corboy might use the body kicks to maintain the distance.
Gaethje also ducks down and throws body punches which can be a bit risky against Cerrone cause he might get caught with a knee.

Ground Game:
Cerrone’s ground game is highly underrated. 17 submissions in his career and yet most people wouldn’t consider him an expert on the ground.
The last submission against Mike Perry was just one example of how good he really is. Perry took him down and Cerrone let him have the takedown, tossed Perry in the air, caught his arm and submitted him. That was one of the most insane submission in recent times.
Maintaining Distance :
Cerrone is very good at maintaining the distance. Well, his reach does help a lot. However, his jabs and body kicks play a key role in this aspect. He even pushed Al Laquinta in his last fight to keep him at the bay. And Al is very similar to Gaethje when it comes to boxing. So this might be a key factor if the fight goes on for a longer period.

So we have talked about both the fighters. How would a fight go between these two?’

For sure it’s going to be a very competitive and exciting fight this weekend. It’s very likely to be finished with a knockout. But who gets the win?

Cerrone is a slow starter and Gaethje will put it on him from the very beginning. So the first few minutes will be crucial.

Gaethje puts pressure that can not be replicated in a gym. So how Cerrone reacts to that will be interesting to watch. Cerrone has had trouble with pressure fighter. Darren Till, Tony Ferguson, and Nate Diaz are just a few examples of fighters who have beaten Cerrone and they all are pressure fighters. And Gaethje is more aggressive than all of them.

Also, Cowboy moves backward a lot. And if Gaethje gets him on the fence then it might be a trouble for Cerrone. Keep in mind that the last two knockouts of Gaethje were on the fence.

Talking about how Cerrone can hurt Gaethje, it has to be his leg kicks and cardio. We have seen Gaethje slowing down as the fight goes to 4th or 5th rounds. And Cerrone’s cardio seems better than that. He landed more strikes in the 4th and 5th rounds against Al than the first three rounds.

Now Cerrone can set up his leg kicks with his boxing and he can also catch Geathje with a knee or a head kick too. However, Gaethje is going to return the favor if Cowboy kicks him.
Let’s not take the ground game of Cerrone to consideration for this fight since it’s unlikely that the fight will go to the ground. However, if Gaethje changes level, Cerrone can submit for sure. Then again we have never really seen how good Gaethje is in grappling.

Keeping everything in mind, Gaethje seems to be the favorite going into the fight. I think his pressure will be a lot to deal with for Cowboy. If the fight goes the 4th or 5th round Cowboy will have an advantage of better conditioning. However, how good will he do if he takes a lot of damage in the first three rounds?

Again Cowboy’s kicking game is lethal, but Gaethje’s kicks are no joke either. Both fighters are experienced and have a lot of heart. So irrespective of the result, it’s going to a war for sure.

Justin Gaethje vs Donald Cerrone Prediction:

Justin Gaethje via knock out