There was a lot of drama leading up to the Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov bantamweight title clash at UFC 311. Dvalishvili, the reigning champ, of course, absolutely detests his Dagestani opponent. ‘The Machine’ is convinced that the undefeated #1 ranked 135-pounder does not even deserve to fight for the title. After all, Nurmagomedov was given an easy road to the title by Dana White and co. In his last fight, Umar, who was then ranked #10 defeated then #2 ranked Cory Sandhangen to earn his title contendership.

This means that the Dagestani leap-frogged the entire top ten of the division, and got a title shot after facing only one top-ten ranked opponent. This is in stark contrast to ‘The Machine’ grinding out ten consecutive UFC wins to get a title shot. And ‘The Machine’ feels that Nurmagomedov was given this special treatment by the promotion mainly because he is Khabib‘s cousin. In addition, Dvalishvili, who has a chip on his shoulder, feels utterly disrespected by Umar and his trash talk towards him.

This is why the champ initially didn’t want to fight Umar. However, tired of this ‘disrespect’ from Umar and the buzz that he was ‘scared’ to fight the Dagestani, Dvalishvili barged into Dana White‘s office last month to demand the Umar fight. The UFC obliged and the fans were delighted. The two men genuinely don’t like each other and have a point to prove, which always makes for electrifying fights. In this article, we take a look at the matchup and make our official prediction for their fight.

UFC 311: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov stats

Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov’s stylistic matchup is a pretty intriguing one. Umar, of course, comes from Khabib and Islam Makachev’s legendary stable and is a fantastic wrestler because of it. But Dvalishvili himself is a world-class wrestler. Perhaps even a bit better than Umar because of his strength and Terminator-like relentlessness and unstoppable-ness.

Apart from the eye test, the stats also bear out the fact that Dvalishvili has an edge in grappling. After all, the champ lands over six successful takedowns per fight, compared to Umar’s three. On the other hand, the Dagestani is more accurate in landing takedowns, with a fifty percent takedown accuracy rate, compared to Dvalishvili’s thirty-six percent. But it is important to remember that ‘The Machine’ has also faced much stiffer competition than his undefeated UFC 311 opponent.

However, in the striking department, there isn’t even an argument about which of the Papakha-wearing bantamweight is better. Umar Nurmagomedov is a remarkable striker, with a dynamic and very well-rounded repertoire at his disposal. In sharp contrast, Dvalishvili relies almost entirely on his stifling ground game. But the stats don’t really bear out this disparity, which is why the eye-test is so important.

On paper at least, there doesn’t seem to be much difference in the two men’s striking. Umar and Merab both have successfully landed just over four significant strikes per minute during their UFC stints. But there are also some pretty notable differences. The Dagestani is quite a bit more accurate, landing over sixty percent of his significant strikes, while the Georgian’s accuracy hovers just over forty percent. So, Umar’s dynamism will probably be very important in their fight. After all, it’s not just how many you land, but what you land and where. This brings us to the heart of the matter- who is going to win the fight? Well, let’s discuss.

Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov breakdown and prediction

Umar Nurmagomedov and Merab Dvalishvili are roughly the same size. The Dagestani stands at 5’8″ with a wingspan of 69″, which makes him bigger (but only slightly) than the 5’6″ champ, who has a reach of 68″. But perhaps Dvalishvili’s slight height disadvantage would be an advantage for him. After all, ‘The Machine’ is stockier than his Dagestani opponent, and going from the eye test, looks stronger than Umar.

But undoubtedly the best attribute Dvalishvili has is his legendary cardio. ‘The Machine’, after all, is every bit as untirable and unstoppable as his nickname suggests. This strength and gas tank, of course, would be vital in the two men’s grappling exchanges, which will probably decide the result of their fight. After all, Khabib was so dominant and successful precisely because of his legendary strength, which allowed him to take his opponents down and muscle them there. And Dvalishvili is very much in that mold

On the other hand, Cory Sandhagen thinks that Dvalishvili isn’t really one to “pin people to the mat or take their back”. The bantamweight star means that Dvalishvili’s opponents can get up if they try, as no-grappling Sean O’Malley showed at their UFC 306 clash last year. Petr Yan would be another example. And, Merab has only one submission win in his career despite his grappling prowess.

In contrast, Umar’s ground game is built around being on top and keeping his opponents on their back every second of a grappling exchange. Umar, of course, is also better able to transition into submissions if and when the opportunity presents itself, something Dvalishvili doesn’t really even try to do.

“He [Dvalishvili] has got championship heart… Merab is the better freestyle wrestler, and Merab is better than him on pressure. But when we see how [Umar] mixes it up, like Mixed Martial Arts, he’s one of the best right now in the world… It’s gonna be a very high-level fight,” Khabib said of this fight. And we agree with him.

This is why we think Umar Nurmagomeov will beat Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 311 – because of his superior striking and world-class ground game. We see the fight going the distance and Umar winning on points, but there is also the possibility that the Dagestani stops the champ inside five rounds, perhaps with one of his remarkably quick and incredibly clean question mark kicks. Do you agree with our prediction for the UFC 311 bantamweight title clash between Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov?