Croatia is currently in dire straits as their journey in the UEFA Euro 2024 might be nearing the finish line. Last night, Zlatko Dalic’s side was held 1-1 by Group B rivals Italy at the Red Bull Arena Leipzig in the final Matchday 3. The outcome has unfortunately made it very difficult for Luka Modric and Co. to progress further into the Round of 16.

But if you ask Dalic, the burden is not only his team’s to share but also the match referees’ fault. As per a post-match update, Dalic seemed visibly angry about the eight minutes of stoppage time added by match referee Danny Makkalie. ‘The referee tore us apart the whole match, he wasn’t sent to that match by chance,” the 57-year-old said, according to Mail Online, before adding, “There were six substitutions, so three minutes maximum. And it was VAR minutes, so four minutes maximum, he put eight.” Italy had failed to net a goal throughout the match, but as fate would have it, Mattia Zaccagni worked his magic in the 98th minute. Perhaps that explains Dalic’s frustration!

Aside from the tied contest between Croatia and Italy, Spain simultaneously clinched a narrow victory over Albania, meaning that La Roja finished the group as toppers with 9 points. Likewise, Gli Azzurri finished second with 4 points and Albania is already going home after finishing last with just one point. As for Croatia, they ended the group stage with just 2 points and a -2 goal difference. A third-place finish means that apparently, there is still a chance for them to make it into the next stage of the competition.

This is because aside from the top 2 finishers, only four third-placed teams from each of the six groups will get a chance to move forward. For instance, in Group A, while Germany and Switzerland are in the top 2, Hungary is the third-placed team, who finished the standings with 3 points. However, as of June 24, here is how the ranking of third-placed teams stands.

Croatia does seem to be stuck in a bind. Even during the 2020 UEFA, the Luka Modric-led team was eliminated from the round of 16, after a 3-5 thriller against Spain. Historically speaking, the team has qualified every edition of the tournament, expect 2000. But, even then, the highest they’ve been able to reach is the Quarter-Finals in 1996 (lost to Germany) and 2008 (lost to Turkey).

Even though nothing is confirmed as the remaining four groups are yet to play their final group stage game, can this work in favor of Croatia?

Here’s how Croatia and Luka Modric book their place in Euro 2024 Round of 16!

Scenario 1: Need magic in Group C with England defeating Slovenia by 3+ goals

The current standings in Group C see England at the top with 4 points, followed by Denmark and Slovenia being tied with 2 points and 0 goal difference. Meanwhile, Serbia is at the bottom with just a single point. By clinching a victory in its final group stage game with more than 3 goals, Gareth Southgate’s side can affect Slovenia’s goal difference, eventually making it difficult for them to make their case for being among the best third-placed teams.

Scenario 2: Czechia and Georgia shall be sacrificed in Group F 

In Group F, Portugal managed to book its place in the RO16 with just two victories. Behind them is Turkiye with 3 points with Czechia and Georgia sharing a single point each but being separated with a -1 and -2 GD. Henceforth, the biggest boost for Croatia would be to see Czechia lose to Turkey or Georgia lose to the Cristiano Ronaldo-led Portugal in their final group-stage game.

If Portugal manages to end the group perfectly with all three wins by defeating Georgia in their final game, Croatia can cement its chances of becoming one of the four best third-placed teams. With Roberto Martinez’s side entering the KO stage as title favorites with their attacking prowess and team dynamics, that is likely to happen.

In conclusion, Croatia still does have a chance to make it to the Round of 16, but that depends on the outcomes of other games.