It’s only a matter of time before the NWSL playoffs kick off. With just one matchday remaining, the final league standings will determine which teams advance to the next stage of the competition. As the race to secure a spot in the top 8 intensifies, we inspect the Portland Thorns’ playoff qualification scenarios.

To determine this, we shall first take a look at the league table before all the 14 sides play their last game of the regular season. Starting off with Orlando Pride—the NWSL Shield champions of course—who have already secured the place to contest in the Challenge Cup. Trailing behind Marta and Co. are Washington Spirit and Gotham FC, both tied at 53 points, with KC Current in fourth place, just one point behind.

It’s safe to say these four teams are likely to secure playoff spots, regardless of whether they win, lose, or draw their final matches. North Carolina Courage, sitting in fifth place with 39 points and a 7-point lead over the team below them, can also be considered in the safe zone.

The real battle, however, is among the teams in sixth, seventh, eighth, and ninth places: Chicago Red Stars (32 points), Portland Thorns (31 points), Bay FC (31 points), and Racing Louisville (28 points). Now concerning Portland Thorns, the final matchday can go for them in two of the following ways:

Case 1: If Sophia Smith and Co. secure victory in their final tie vs Angel City

Of course, a win would see Portland Thorns secure a much safer place in the table and automatically increase their playoff chances significantly. They would be ending the season with 34 points, overtaking Chicago (if the Red Stars lose or draw) and potentially climbing higher in the standings.

This would certainly place them in a much more secure playoff position, making the results of other teams irrelevant. In this case, Smith and her teammates wouldn’t need to rely on the outcomes of Chicago, Bay FC, or Racing Louisville, as their points total would safely ensure a top 8 finish.

Case 2: Will Portland Thorns lose out on NWSL playoffs if they secure a defeat or a draw in their final league game?

This one shouldn’t be a no-brainer. If the Thorns fail to secure a win against Angel City, then their hopes will surely rely on the outcomes of other teams. That’s because, with 31 points and a -1 goal difference, they could be at a disadvantage compared to Chicago Red Stars (32 points, GD -5) and Bay FC (31 points, GD -11).

In this situation, Portland would need both Chicago and Bay FC to either lose or draw in order to stay in the top 8. However, they risk being overtaken if Bay FC wins and surpasses them on goal difference. Similarly, if Portland only manages a draw, moving them to 32 points, they could still be overtaken based on goal difference, particularly if Chicago and Bay FC win their final matches.

Hence, victory is the only option for Rob Gale’s side in their final matchday. Otherwise, a draw or a defeat will only leave their NWSL playoff hopes hanging in balance.