How Can USMNT Qualify for the Paris Olympics Knockout Rounds After Dominant 4–1 Win Over New Zealand? All Possible Scenarios Explained

It was a do-or-die game for the US U-23 MNT when they faced New Zealand in their second Group A game at the Paris Olympics 2024 and they could not have done any better than they did. Djordje Mihailovic, Walker Zimmerman, Gianluca Busio, and Paxten Aaronson found the back of the net to uproot New Zealand and secure three crucial points for USMNT. As this commanding win comes after a humbling defeat against the hosts France in the opener, the US is still at no. 2 in Group A. Moreover, Marko Mitrovic’s side will have to wait till all group games conclude to know whether they advance to the knockouts or get grouped.

Here we look at the possible scenarios by which the USMNT can qualify for the Olympic knockouts. It depends on how the group stage turns out for France, New Zealand, and Guinea.

Here’s how the USMNT can qualify for Paris Olympics knockouts

If USMNT wins or draws against Guinea in its last group game

If Marko Mitrovic’s men beat Guinea, they would finish at least as Group A’s second seed or even as the first seed and comfortably qualify for the knockouts. But, if the US draws against Guinea, they will have to hope New Zealand doesn’t beat France because, in that scenario, both New Zealand and France could get to 6 points, while the US would be stuck at 4 points.

If New Zealand loses its final group game

After falling tremendously against the USMNT, it would be a Herculean task for New Zealand to beat France. If New Zealand loses to France, which is a possibility, Mitrovic’s team could cruise into the knockouts, provided they beat Guinea or draw against them.

If France loses its remaining group games

It truly is a bit far-fetched to imagine the hosts going out of the Olympic soccer tournament like that. But for argument’s sake, let’s suppose Guinea and New Zealand both beat France. Then France could lose their top spot to the USMNT. However, New Zealand winning against France would mean they will compete with the US for the top spot, with the battle coming down to goal difference. But, a US-Kiwi battle for the top spot will happen only if the US wins against Guinea.

If France wins its remaining group games

Win or lose, France can aid the USMNT’s run in the Paris Olympics. France winning its remaining group games means it would beat New Zealand and Guinea. The France-New Zealand tie is do-or-die for the Kiwis. If they fail to prevail, the US is in a sweet spot to advance to the next round. If Guinea loses to France, it will be their second loss and will put them in a weak spot. In that case, the US will only need to secure a draw against Guinea to surpass them.

These are the ways Team USA could prevail. But if both Guinea and New Zealand win their remaining two games or New Zealand and France win at least one more game, we could see a goal difference tug of war in Group A. And that might jeopardize the USMNT’s 2024 Olympic stint.