Race pace analysis for the Singapore Grand Prix

It was quite a peculiar free practice 2 yesterday at the Singapore Grand Prix with Red Bull’s Daniil Kvyat showing pretty impressive pace while the Mercs faltered with the tires. It had everyone thinking about the wonders Red Bull was upto, and possibly a three way battle for the lead, Red Bull vs Mercedes vs Ferrari.

While the lap times of the shorter stints especially in FP1 and FP2 don’t tell us much about the race pace, we analysed the lap times of the longer runs during the two practice sessions and made some analysis of the lap times for Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, Force India and McLaren for the race on Sunday, taking both compounds under consideration.

Ferrari at the present moment look really quick, though slower on the softer tires than the Bulls and at par with the Mercs. The Mercs faltered with the tires badly during FP2, which might be helpful to Ferrari. Sebastian Vettel has a better race pace than Kimi- a gap of 0.448s according to our estimations.

The Red Bulls took a strategic penalty during Monza for this race. While the team’s future still hangs in balance, they managed to clock up some real impressive times during the Free Practices. The layout of the street circuit is such that the power deficit Renault engine won’t cause them much worries. They show a small gap of 0.0925s to the Ferraris with Daniel Ricciardo leading his Russian team mate by 0.223s in race pace despite the latter leading in quick lap times. Their race pace is similar to Ferrari and degradation, if not better, at par with them on the super softs.

The Mercedes will face real competition here since their strong Mercedes engine will only be able to give them limited advantage during the weekend. Their race pace wasn’t particularly good yesterday, a big 0.474s off the Ferraris. Off the two Silver Arrows, Rosberg is a further big 0.862s off Hamilton’s pace. But Rosberg most certainly was trying for a different strategy, a two stopper perhaps, than Hamilton, hence the slower lap times. All said and done, he still needs about 0.370s per lap from his current lap times to make it up to Hamilton. Championship leader Lewis Hamilton, although consistent at the beginning shows high degradation during the latter stages, which might aid Rosberg, if he aims for a two stopper.

The Force India’s come next, but a big 1.0665s off the race pace leaders, Ferrari. They come into the weekend with the final updates for the B-spec car, which certainly should help them hold on to the fifth place in constructors trophy. Perez looks quicker off the two with Hulkenberg some 0.343s behind the Mexican in terms of race pace.

Our last team, McLaren will be hoping for some real good fortunes this weekend. After a terrible Spa and Monza, Singapore is their shot at glory. The power deficit Honda engine won’t be much of a hindrance to them this race weekend, since the track is more about the slow corner exits and the handling of the car, rather than engine horsepower. Although no miracles are expected from them, a points finish would be great, honestly, and with Fernando Alonso(a two time winner here) and Jenson Button on board, things are possible. Talking about race pace, they are a mighty 1.963s off the Ferraris, with Fernando Alonso being the faster of the two by 0.67s.

Jenson Button agreed he was a little let down by his result on Friday, although admitted that a Q3 entry is possible. Especially with Williams, Lotus and Toro Rosso in the mix, the middle order looks really interesting.

Looks like we have a brilliant race on the cards here. Mercedes usually sandbags and gains around 0.3-0.4s from Friday to Saturday, which means they’ll be right in the mix. It still looks a three way battle for pole and for the race though: Red Bull vs Mercedes vs Ferrari.