“Either you want to be a Pittsburgh Steeler or you don’t.” Those words of Steelers legend Cam Heyward, referring to the Aaron Rodgers saga, were loud enough for the Steelers to remember they are too big to beg. An elite franchise with a storied history, 6 Lombardi’s and countless Hall of Famers. Their desperation to sign a 41-year-old still mulling retirement looked pretty foolish. But since Rodgers has spoken, it was due to personal issues that he maintained silence despite the Steelers’ undeniable interest. The Steelers may have regained some of their respect. Still, their pursuit of Aaron Rodgers hasn’t lost any steam. So, with the Steelers’ chase of Rodgers far from over, TJ Watt’s brother, JJ Watt, has tried to alert Mike Tomlin (yet again).

See, JJ has always been ahead when it comes to sensing a probable situation. Back in the day, when TJ was just entering the final year of his contract, JJ tried to warn the Steelers. “Reward your players earlier and reap the benefits in the long run. Dragging it out not only ends up costing more, it unnecessary tension. The longer you wait, the higher the price,” JJ said, referring to his brother’s expiring contract. However, the Steelers didn’t listen and are now stuck in a do-or-die situation.

Having lost the leverage to negotiate, the Steelers are looking at a potential 8-figure extension for their 7-time Pro Bowler. Now they are faced with another tough choice, and JJ has tried to warn them again about a possible disastrous scenario. When ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky floated a question to his X followers, “What’s worse/more detrimental? Drafting a QB too early and missing? Paying a free agent QB too much and missing?” JJ popped up with his answer in the comments, backing it through some solid analysis.

“Thanks to the rookie wage scale, you get 4 years of a rookie QB for the same price as 1 year of a high-end free agent QB. If you hit on the rookie, you’ve got a franchise QB for 10+ years. If you miss, you start the process over again in 3 years,” JJ wrote on X. That’s what franchises do whenever it’s a hit or a miss situation with a rookie QB. JJ feels it also makes it easier for general managers to save their blushes if a rookie flops, compared to a free agent bust.

“If a GM misses on a rookie QB, you can (somewhat) chalk that up to the crapshoot of evaluating college talent against college competition. If they miss and overpay a free agent QB, there’s not much of a safety net there. You had plenty of information to evaluate them,” JJ added. Obviously, something similar is going on in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are torn between deciding whether to bring in a young signal caller or continue waiting for Rodgers. There’s also their lack of power in drafting a good franchise QB.

Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders are almost certain to be picked before the Steelers are on the clock at No.21. And they may not even get Ole Miss’s Jaxson Dart if certain chips don’t go their way. That’s why the Steelers are probably adamant about signing Rodgers. However, JJ believes that’s not the right choice. “Unless you have a Super Bowl-ready roster and there is a free agent QB available who can legitimately take you to that Super Bowl (Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tom Brady), you’d rather swing and miss on a rookie with potential than swing and miss on an expensive vet.” 

Even though Rodgers has stated that he wouldn’t mind playing on a $10 million per season contract, the chances of him getting such a deal are still low. If it comes true, it would make Rodgers the lowest-paid starting QB in the league besides those rookie contracts, JJ mentioned. Aside from this Rodgers saga, the Steelers are dealing with their future Hall of Famer linebacker’s contract. He seems to have his own demands.

TJ Watt to hold out for a Myles Garrett-like contract

Maxx Crosby’s $35.5M per year contract extension with the Raiders made him the highest-paid non-QB for just 48 hours. Until the Browns gave their estranged defensive end Myles Garrett a record-breaking $40M per year contract extension. Those numbers have since reset the pass rush market. However, Watt, who has been an explosive defensive star for the Steelers every year since being drafted, will only earn $21 million this year. Obviously, those financials wouldn’t make Watt happy, considering those around him are earning way more.

And it’s not even like TJ doesn’t deserve a contract like Myles Garrett. Since 2019, TJ has more sacks (89) than Garrett (82). That’s why his demands for a mammoth contract extension are difficult for the Steelers to ignore. And if they don’t act up now, it might be an unsalvageable situation for them. Micah Parsons is next in line to receive a historic extension. Considering he is 4 years younger than Watt, Parsons’ contract extension could make it even tougher for the Steelers to negotiate with Watt.

So, it’s a now-or-never kind of situation for the Steelers. Either they give Watt whatever the contract he wants, or risk losing him in free agency next season. And even worse, a holdout until he gets the deal he deserves.