A loss today could end the Dolphins’ hopes of making the playoffs. And when they needed every one of their star players available against the Browns. The Dolphins have received the worst possible news on their QB, Tua Tagovailoa. His struggles with injuries have yet again come back to haunt the Phins as they prepare for their final two-game stretch this season.

Building up to this clash, there were already concerns about Tua’s availability. His hip injury against the Texans kept Tagovailoa limited in practice all week. And the inevitable happened like the Dolphins would have feared. Tua has been ruled out with that hip injury in Cleveland. In his place, the Dolphins are going with a former Browns player. Tyler Huntley is expected to start against his former team, which released him during the offseason.

Huntley was picked by the Dolphins when Tua suffered his third concussion of his career at the start of this season. This led to him missing four games and the Dolphins losing 3 of them. Out of those four, Huntley started three games and went 1-2 as a starter. He racked up 377 yards with a TD and an interception. They have also activated Skylar Thompson from their practice squads just in case he is needed.

But can either of them really replace Tua Tagovailoa? Even after missing 4 games, Tua has racked up 2,867 passing yards and 19 TDs to keep the Dolphins in the hunt for the playoffs. His absence will surely be felt if the Phins are unable to produce a positive result today. Well, Miami is also dealing with problems on its receiving front. Their star receiver, Tyreek Hill, remains questionable with a wrist injury that he may have suffered in an altercation with the police at the start of this season.

They will also be without Jaylen Waddle, who continues to recover from his knee injury against the Texans. So the thing is, if the Dolphins fail to get a result today, their dream of making the playoffs could be over.

Counting the probabilities of the Dolphins entering the postseason

With the news of Tua not playing on Sunday, the only thing that will circle around Miami is the permutation and combination of them making the playoffs. As per The Athletic’s playoff prediction model, the Phins have a 16% chance to punch their postseason ticket. Now, here’s where it gets complicated. Four other teams are vying for that No.7 seed in the AFC. And guess what? The Dolphins have the second-lowest chance after the Bengals, who won their clash on Saturday.

Anything but a win today will eliminate the Dolphins from capturing a postseason berth. However, they also need some help elsewhere. The Broncos must lose to the Chiefs, who have already wrapped up the AFC No.1 seed. But the concern is the Chiefs could give Patrick Mahomes some rest, as they have already done their part. If that happens, then the Broncos could probably secure the No.7 seed and eliminate everyone else from the competition.

Elsewhere, the Dolphins also need the Colts to lose at least one of their two games. However, this seems unlikely as they have to face the Giants and the Jaguars in the next two weeks. Well, the only positive for them here is that Anthony Richardson won’t be starting today in New York because of back and foot injuries. Who knows, maybe the Giants can pop up with a win and give their fans and Miami something to cheer by the end of Sunday.

For now, everything is just ifs and buts. But soon, it will get clearer once the games get underway within a few minutes.