QBs are a luxury in this free agency. Seems like every other team is looking for an offensive leader in a sea which is not exactly filled with enough fishes. In such a case, did the Minnesota Vikings just sign up for trouble, again? Maybe. Maybe not. 

NFL Insider, Ian Rapoport recently updated the NFL world, “The #Vikings are not expected to franchise tag QB Sam Darnold by Tuesday’s deadline, per me and @TomPelissero. But all parties are working through options to potentially keep him in Minnesota. Darnold, who is set to hit free agency, has a situation best described as fluid.”

Translation? Bbye, Sammy! Kind of. 

Continuing the saga of the offseason that kind of matches the last season’s Kirk Cousins move, the Vikes are in conversations with Sam to keep him in the city, just not at the team QB tag of $40 million. If he does agree to the $20-25 million one-year deal, he will be more of a stopgap for the team until J.J. McCarthy returns from his injury. If not, other teams are circling him already. One in the rumor mill? The New York Giants. While the free agency market for Darnold is not exactly abuzz, other teams like the Giants with a dire need of a QB might target him. So, if he does move on, where would he land? NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah has some thoughts.

On Wednesday’s episode of The Rich Eisen Show, Jeremiah had an interesting question to answer. Rich Eisen asked him, “The non-franchise tagging of Sam Darnold. What do you make of that Daniel?”

Jeremiah expressed, “Well, the J.J. McCarthy era is about to kick off, that’s the takeaway there. I just think if he (Sam) gets to the market, and he sounds like he is going to get to the market, I don’t think Minnesota would have let it get to that point if they were going to really, really try and make that happen. So, to me, I would guess that Sam Darnold is probably moving on, probably done in Minnesota, and that’s going to be the first domino to actually fall… Now, all of a sudden, Sam Darnold lands somewhere, now we get some movement. He is the lead off-hitter in the free agency, that’s what kind of gets everything going.”

With the analyst believing that Sam Darnold’s case could be the first major quarterback move for free agency that begins a dominoes effect, it was natural for Eisen to follow up. He asked, “Who do you think would take him? Where do you peg him? What are the spots for him?”  To this, the sports writer said, “I mean, I think, you know, does Sam want to go back to the New York market? I don’t know that he would, but I would think the Giants would be in on that.”

According to The Athletic, NFL executives believe that the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders are Darnold’s likeliest destinations for the 2025 season.

Sam Darnold began his pro career with the Jets as the third overall pick in the first round but only stuck with them for two years. He later hopped through the league to finally unlock his potential with the Vikings. In 2024, he had a passer rating of 102.5 with 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 17 games. He ultimately led Minnesota to the playoffs with a record of 14-3. Now that the Giants are also open for a new QB, Jeremiah thinks Darnold could return to New York once again – but this time, not the Jets.

Seemingly, the Vikes HC Kevin O’Connell is okay with it all. During the scouting combine in Indianapolis last week, he did not measure the words as he showed his support,

“I’ve had great dialogue with Sam from the time this season ended up until very recently, and I think my relationship with Sam has grown to a point where the respect level is sky high. Sam is in a position where the NFL thinks he can play quarterback at a high level, so that’s a really good thing and I feel very proud to be a part of helping him get to this point. We’ll see kind of where it goes from here.”

However, simply putting and placing Darnold on any team would not mean that his heroics from the last season could be repeated. At least not according to the NFL analyst Aaron Schatz who recently mentioned, “But the difficulty with placing Darnold on a new team is that you want to match him with a franchise where the offensive coordinator will run an offense similar to what Kevin O’Connell had for him in Minnesota. That’s what allowed Darnold to finally flourish, overcome his early-career bust status and rank 14th with a 60.4 QBR in 2024.” 

Still, there are more teams eyeing the QB. For one, the Steelers might also examine him, especially if they decide to go with Justin Fields over Russell Wilson. Another option? The Colts. Jeremiah brought back his tweet about Indianapolis to be Sam’s next option to which he did not get any interest from the fans. But he had a point– If Indy is looking for competition for Anthony Richardson, Darnold might give them a better chance at winning next season.

In fact, Jeremy Fowler once reported that Sam just might receive a four-year contract of up to $160 million. And this is while his free agency market is not as hot. So the mystery that remains is, what’s next for Sam?

Will Sam Darnold remain with the Vikings?

The Vikings made a big statement – no franchise tag for Sam Darnold. That’s a clear sign they continue to shift gears at quarterback. But…But… Instead of locking him in at $40.2 million, they aim for a one-year deal with him worth around $20-25 million. That means about $15 less than the franchise tag. Why? If you ask NFL analyst Thor Nystrom, 

“1) Vikings ain’t trading McCarthy

“2) I was told in Indy that Vikes weren’t tagging Darnold, and that Darnold’s market isnt as robust as public thinks

“3) Minnesota’ll re-sign Sam to 1-yr $20-25m range deal if a market doesn’t emerge, with the understanding it’ll be a competition“

With Sam Darnold’s market getting colder, owing to his performances in the last two matchups where the Vikes lost, Minnesota might get him at a discount. If they do, he’ll likely compete with J.J. McCarthy, serving as a temporary fix while the rookie gets ready. So, the Vikings are seeing this as a move for their future.

As for Darnold, if his free agency market does not crop up more profitable deal, what the Vikings are offering is already double than his previous season salary. If he does agree, he can continue showcasing his skills on this team and aim for the open market next year.

But here’s the catch – other teams need quarterbacks, too. If someone else makes a move for Sam Darnold, the Vikings could be in trouble. This off-season is gonna be interesting for sure!