The NFL Draft is like a high-stakes poker game—bluffs, tells, and the occasional royal flush. For Brian Callahan’s Tennessee Titans, holding the No. 1 pick feels like sitting on pocket aces. But in a twist straight out of a Christopher Nolan script, the combine just threw a curveball.

Picture this: the scent of smoky BBQ wafts through Nashville, Titans fans debate draft strategies over cold beers, and a buzz builds around a Penn State phenom who’s suddenly the talk of the town. But someone’s missing from the table…

Penn State’s Abdul Carter, a defensive end compared to Dallas Cowboys star Micah Parsons, is the consensus No. 1 prospect in this draft. Analysts like Daniel Jeremiah and Todd McShay have raved about his versatility, calling him a “unicorn” who could redefine edge-rushing.

On February 24, Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer fueled speculation on The Rich Eisen Show: “Abdul Carter is the type of player you can build a defense around and plays such a premium position.” The Titans, who’ve openly flirted with trading the pick, could fetch a “Godfather package” for Carter—a deal so good it’d make Al Pacino jealous. But hold the phone.

Callahan’s front office is playing chess while others are playing checkers. With the draft’s top quarterback class in years absent (Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders aren’t drawing elite buzz), the Titans could pivot to defense.

Carter’s 12 sacks and 24 tackles for loss last season scream game-changer. As McShay noted, “I’d go with Abdul over Travis Hunter because I know definitively what I’m getting.” The Titans could either draft him themselves or trade the pick to a team desperate for a pass-rushing ace—think the Bears or Lions. Besides, history is on the Titans’ side.

In 2021, the Cowboys traded up to draft Parsons, who’s since become a two-time All-Pro. Carter’s ceiling is that high. “He’s just a damn good football player,” McShay raved. And like Parsons, Carter’s versatility (he played off-ball linebacker early in college) makes him a nightmare for offenses. The Super Bowl just proved defense wins championships—just ask the Eagles’ suffocating front seven. But Carter himself has thrown in a curve ball in the mix.

Carter’s absence, Titans’ opportunity

On Monday, news broke that Carter won’t work out at the NFL Combine due to a lingering shoulder injury ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported. Carter’s agent, Drew Rosenhaus, confirmed he’ll sit out drills but plans to shine at Penn State’s Pro Day on March 28. This isn’t the first time a top pick skipped the Combine, though.

Micah Parsons did the same in 2021. And it adds intrigue. Especially Carter’s stark similarity with Parsons’s graph. Will teams gamble on his tape alone? Or will the Titans leverage this uncertainty to swing a blockbuster trade?

The Combine is part circus, part job fair. Without Carter’s 40-yard dash or three-cone drill, teams will rely on his medicals and interviews. His shoulder injury isn’t a red flag—it’s a speed bump. As Rosenhaus said, “We fully expect Abdul to be recovered in time to work out at his pro day.” This isn’t 2014; teams have learned to value tape over Combine numbers. Besides, this draft isn’t inviting.

It’s a “starter draft,” per Jeremiah. But edge rushers like Carter don’t grow on trees. The Titans could follow the Chiefs’ blueprint: prioritize defense after locking in a quarterback. If they trade the pick, expect a haul. As Breer noted, “You hesitate to use ‘unique’ because he has a lot of… it’s like Micah Parsons.” Hence, the Titans are at a crossroads.

Draft Carter, and they land a generational talent. Trade the pick, and they stockpile assets. Either way, Callahan’s chessboard is set. For Abdul Carter and the Titans, the clock is ticking. And as any gambler knows, the house always wins… eventually.