The NFL offseason is like a high-stakes poker game—every franchise is waiting to see who bluffs, who folds, and who goes all-in. As the league’s salary cap balloons to a record $279.5 million, teams are scrambling to fix holes, avoid cap disasters, and maybe even swing for the fences. Imagine the Chiefs’ offensive line as a leaky roof during a hurricane, or the Jets’ quarterback situation as a roulette wheel with no guaranteed payout. This year’s free agency could be the wildest yet, with Super Bowl contenders and cellar dwellers alike facing make-or-break decisions.

But before the chaos begins on March 12, let’s play GM for a day. Which teams are one wrong move away from disaster? Which franchises have the cap space to reshape their destinies? And who’s about to become the next cap casualty? Think of this as the NFL’s version of Survivor. One wrong move and your franchise quarterback ends up running for his life like Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl. From cap nightmares in Buffalo to quarterback carousels in Pittsburg, let’s break down each team’s biggest liability—and the Band-Aids (or tourniquets) they need.

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills: can they survive without Von Miller?

Cap situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Von Miller (EDGE): $23.8M cap hit.

The Bills’ defense underperformed in 2024, and Von Miller’s $8.397M cap savings from a release could be the first domino to fall. At 36, Miller’s sack totals dipped, but cutting him risks losing a locker-room leader. Dan Graziano notes, “Miller hasn’t been the impact player Buffalo hoped he would be when it signed him.” Solution?

Trade him post-June 1 to save $17.44M. But who’d take an aging edge rusher with a $15M salary? The Bills might have to eat the cost and rebuild their pass rush via the draft.

Miami Dolphins: The cap crunch continues

Cap situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Christian Kirk (WR): $24M cap hit

The Dolphins are cap claustrophobic, with Jevon Holland and Tyreek Hill’s futures hanging in the balance. Cutting veterans like Raheem Mostert ($2.9M savings) won’t solve much. Graziano suggests extension candidates like Terron Armstead or Bradley Chubb to clear 2025 space. But Miami’s real problem?

They’re one injury away from chaos. A solution? Franchise Holland and pray for Tua Tagovailoa’s health.

New England Patriots: the QB conundrum

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Derek Barnett (EDGE): $18M cap hit

With the No. 4 pick and a treasure chest of cap space, the Patriots’ biggest liability is their QB room. Mike Vrabel needs a franchise passer, not another draft bust. Options?

Travis Hunter or Will Campbell in the draft, or a trade for Kirk Cousins. But as The Athletic notes, “They [the Patriots] need to hit on this pick.” Miss, and the rebuild stalls.

New York Jets: Rodgers’ $49M Ghost

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Aaron Rodgers (QB): $49M dead cap if released.

Cutting Aaron Rodgers costs $49M in dead money, but it’s a necessary exorcism. The Jets’ QB options?

Tyrod Taylor, Kirk Cousins, or, with the 7th overall pick in hand, a draft dart on their choice of QB. Zack Rosenblatt warns, “The Jets do have other needs in an offseason when the quarterback market isn’t great… but it all starts at QB.” Without a viable passer, their $233M cap spending is dead weight.

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens: Mark Andrews’ dilemma

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Mark Andrews (TE): $16.9M cap hit.

At 29, Andrews’ production has dipped, and cutting him saves $11M. But Rob Demovsky reports Lamar Jackson still trusts him. Solution? Restructure Andrews’ deal or let him walk. If he stays, the Ravens risk overspending on a declining TE. If he goes, they lose a red-zone weapon.

Cincinnati Bengals: The Chase-Higgins tightrope

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Tee Higgins (WR): $26M cap hit if franchised.

Ja’Marr Chase’s holdout looms, and Tee Higgins’s $26M franchise tag is pricey. Paul Dehner Jr. suggests the Bengals could franchise Higgins but lose Chase in the process. Solution? Offer Chase a back-loaded deal and trade Higgins for picks. But without Higgins, their offense loses a significant piece with a great future ahead.

Cleveland Browns: Garrett’s gamble

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Myles Garrett (EDGE): $29.9M cap hit.

Trading Myles Garrett post-June 1 saves $19.7M but costs $36M in dead money. Zac Jackson notes, “They [the Browns] can’t afford to move him [now].” So they’ll likely keep Garrett for now and hope Deshaun Watson rebounds (or can be cut without having to be paid). But with no cap space, the rest of their defense remains a sieve.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Watt’s $30.4M anchor

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: T.J. Watt (EDGE): $30.4M cap hit.

T.J. Watt’s $30.4M cap hit is unsustainable. Extending him could cost $34M annually, matching Nick Bosa’s market-topper. Can the Steelers afford another $30M QB?

With Russell Wilson or Justin Fields struggling in 2024, the answer is no. A Watt restructure might be their only out.

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans: OL, WR, or OT Tunsil?

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Laremy Tunsil (OT): $20.2M cap hit.

C.J. Stroud was sacked 63 times in 2024. The Texans need OL help, but Stefon Diggs’s injury and Tank Dell’s inexperience leave WR a hole. The Athletic‘s Mike Jones suggests drafting an OT with the fifth pick. But without cap space, they’ll struggle to sign free agents.

Indianapolis Colts: The Taylor dilemma

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Jonathan Taylor (RB): $12.5M cap hit.

The Colts’ run defense was a sieve, and their safeties underwhelmed. Signing Tre’von Moehrig might be an option. But with $253M in active spending, they’ll need to cut veterans like Braden Smith ($16.75M savings) to afford him.

Jacksonville Jaguars: WR overhaul

Biggest Cap hit: Christian Kirk (WR): $24M cap hit.

The Jaguars’ OL ranked 23rd in Sharp Football‘s rankings, and Brian Thomas Jr.’s emergence makes Christian Kirk expendable ($10.4M savings). Jeff Howe suggests drafting an OT early. But with $234M in cap spending, they’ll need to restructure deals to sign free agents.

Tennessee Titans: QB or bust

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Derek Carr (QB): $40M cap hit.

At 3-14, the Titans need everything. But with the No. 1 pick, Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders could be the answer. The Titans really can’t afford to miss here. If they draft a rookie, they’ll need a bridge QB like Sam Darnold. But their cap space is better spent on OL help.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos: how bad is the Bo Nix cap hit? (if at all)

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Bo Nix (QB): $10M cap hit.

The Broncos had the worst TE production in 2023. Nick Kosmider suggests drafting Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland. But with Bo Nix needing weapons, signing Zach Ertz ($5M AAV) could bridge the gap.

Kansas City Chiefs: TE crisis for Mahomes’s brigade

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Travis Kelce (TE): $17.3M cap hit.

Patrick Mahomes was sacked six times in Super Bowl LIX. The Chiefs need a long-term LT, but options like Orlando Brown Jr. are pricey. Nate Taylor notes, “The Chiefs have started a different left tackle in each of their five Super Bowl appearances.” Solution?

Trade for Laremy Tunsil or Paris Johnson Jr.

Las Vegas Raiders: on the edge

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Maxx Crosby (EDGE): $31.2M cap hit.

Pete Carroll’s Raiders need a QB, but Aidan O’Connell doesn’t seem to be the answer. Vic Tafur suggests signing Sam Darnold or drafting Ohio State’s Will Howard in Round 3. With $90M in space, they could also target Tyreek Hill or Amari Cooper to boost the offense.

Los Angeles Chargers: Interior OL revival

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Joey Bosa (EDGE): $36.5M cap hit.

The Chargers’ guards allowed 82 pressures in 2024. Daniel Popper recommends signing Ryan Kelly or Trey Smith. But with Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt locked in at tackle, the Chargers need two new guards.

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys: Micah Parsons’s $30M question

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Micah Parsons (LB): $30M+ cap hit (pending extension).

Parsons’ extension could cost $30M annually, but the Cowboys have $275M in active spending. Saad Yousuf says the Cowboys are “going to have to restructure the Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb contracts for cap space whether they get a Parsons deal done or not.” Without cap space, they’ll lose Parsons or Zack Martin.

New York Giants: QB or bust

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Kayvon Thibodeaux (EDGE): $16.06M cap hit (fifth-year option).

With the No. 3 pick, the Giants could draft Cam Ward or trade up for C.J. Stroud. Charlotte Carroll warns, “There’s not a long-term starter on the roster right now.” If they miss here, Daniel Jones’s ghost will haunt them.

Philadelphia Eagles: defense or bust

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Darius Slay (CB): $13.7M cap hit.

The Eagles need to re-sign Zack Baun, Josh Sweat, and Milton Williams. Brooks Kubena notes, “Each player the Eagles don’t re-sign, each position becomes a need this offseason.” Solution? Franchise Baun and let Sweat walk. But their defense could regress.

Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels’ weapon hunt

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Jonathan Allen (DT): $22.5M cap hit.

The Commanders have $208M in active spending but with Terry McLaurin likely to be cut, they need a WR. Ben Standig suggests signing Darius Slayton or Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With $78M in space, they could also target veterans like Tyreek Hill.

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears: OL or bust

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Robert Quinn (EDGE): $12.9M cap hit.

Caleb Williams was sacked 68 times in 2024. The Bears need two new guards and a center. Adam Jahns recommends signing Drew Dalman or Trey Smith. But with $200M in active spending, they’ll need to cut veterans like Robert Quinn.

Detroit Lions: how do they bring in more talent?

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Za’Darius Smith (EDGE): $15.5M cap hit.

The Lions’ DT rotation was thin after Alim McNeil’s injury. Nick Baumgardner suggests signing Teair Tart or Jarran Reed. With $232M in spending, they’ll need to restructure deals to afford both.

Green Bay Packers: pass rusher

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Jaire Alexander (CB): $15.7M cap hit.

The Packers need to decide what to do with Josh Myers and Jaire Alexander. They have limited cap space, so they need to balance their long-term goals with their current needs. This decision will impact their ability to address other positions.

Minnesota Vikings: OL or bust

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Sam Darnold (QB): $25.4M cap hit.

The Vikings’ guards allowed 85 pressures in 2024. Alec Lewis suggests signing Brandon Scherff or Kevin Zeitler. But with $211M in spending, they’ll need to cut Sam Darnold to afford upgrades.

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons: The QB Conundrum

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Kirk Cousins (QB): $27.5M cap hit.

The Falcons had 31 sacks in 2024, ranking 31st. Josh Kendall notes, “Matthew Judon was second on the team last year with 5.5 sacks, but he’s hitting free agency and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of urgency on either side to keep Judon in Atlanta.” Solution? Draft Abdul Carter or look to sign Chauncey Golston. But with negative cap space, they’ll need to cut veterans like Cordy Glenn.

Carolina Panthers: run defense

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Brian Burns (EDGE): $20.8M cap hit.

The Panthers allowed 3,000 rushing yards in 2024. Joseph Person suggests signing D.J. Jones or trading for Akiem Hicks. But with $242M in spending, they’ll need to cut veterans like Donte Jackson.

New Orleans Saints: WR or bust

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Derek Carr (QB): $40M cap hit.

The Saints need to decide whether to commit to a rebuild or not. They have limited cap space, so they need to balance their long-term goals with their current needs. This decision will impact their ability to address other positions. Amos Morale III recommends signing Keenan Allen or Chris Godwin. But with negative cap space, they’ll need to cut Derek Carr ($30M savings).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: what do they do with familiar names?

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Chris Godwin (WR): $20.2M cap hit.

The Buccaneers need to decide what to do with Chris Godwin and Lavonte David. They have limited cap space, so they need to balance their long-term goals with their current needs. This decision will impact their ability to address other positions.

Dan Pompei suggests signing Yannick Ngakoue or trading for Myles Garrett. But with $245M in spending, they’ll need to cut Chris Godwin ($12.5M savings).

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals: EDGE or bust

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Budda Baker (S): $14.4M cap hit.

The Cardinals need an edge rusher to pair with Budda Baker. Doug Haller suggests signing Josh Sweat or Trey Hendrickson. With $205M in spending, they’ll need to cut veterans like DeAndre Hopkins.

Los Angeles Rams: does it stop at Cooper Kupp?

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Aaron Donald (DT): $26.5M cap hit.

The Rams’ tackles allowed 72 pressures in 2024. But the current pressure is to decide whether to keep Cooper Kupp or not. Jourdan Rodrigue recommends signing Ryan Kelly or Ronnie Stanley. But with $217M in spending, they’ll need to cut Matthew Stafford ($19.9M savings).

San Francisco 49ers: LB or bust

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Deebo Samuel (WR): $26.2M cap hit.

The 49ers need to quickly decide on Brock Purdy‘s extension. Besides, they need a LB to pair with Fred Warner. Matt Barrows suggests signing Nick Bolton or Bobby Wagner. With $244M in spending, they’ll need to cut Deebo Samuel ($31.55M in savings).

Seattle Seahawks: cut Tyler Lockett?

Cap Situation:

Biggest Cap hit: Tyler Lockett (WR): $17M cap hit.

The Seahawks’ OL ranked 30th in 2024. Michael-Shawn Dugar suggests signing Ronnie Stanley or Kevin Zeitler. But with negative cap space, they’ll need to cut Tyler Lockett ($17M savings).

End note

This offseason is a chess match where every move could checkmate a franchise’s future. The Chiefs aim to keep their dynasty alive, the Giants hunt for a QB savior, and the Saints… well, they’re still digging out of cap hell. Whether it’s Mahomes scrambling, Allen cannon-balling, or Carr praying for a line, one truth remains: In the NFL, you fix your flaws—or get flattened. Buckle up. Free agency is coming.