As the Miami Dolphins gear up for their Week 3 showdown against the Seattle Seahawks, Mother Nature might be throwing a curveball their way.

A slight chance of rain between 11 pm and 5 am. Mostly cloudy. Low around 59, with temperatures rising to around 61 overnight. This forecast might sound like a mundane weather report, but for the Miami Dolphins and Seattle Seahawks, it could be the recipe for a game-changing Sunday showdown.

With a 13% chance of precipitation at kickoff, Lumen Field might transform from a gridiron battleground into a slippery chess board where strategy trumps raw talent.

According to the latest weather reports, temperatures will hover around a comfortable 66°F at game time. But don’t let that fool you – even a light drizzle could throw a wrench in the plans of a Dolphins team already navigating choppy waters without their star quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa.

The absence of Tagovailoa, sidelined on injured reserve following a concussion, has forced Miami to reshuffle their deck. Enter Skylar Thompson, the backup quarterback tasked with steering the Dolphins’ ship through potentially damp Seattle skies. It’s a tall order for Thompson, especially considering the Seahawks’ defensive prowess this season.

This weather wild card might just push Miami to lean harder on their ground game. After all, why risk Thompson’s arm in slick conditions when you can pound the rock? It’s a strategy that could pay dividends, especially considering Seattle’s recent struggles against the run. As Kole Musgrove of Seahawks Wire points out, “If the Dolphins decide to truly commit to establishing the run, the Seahawks could struggle getting them off the field… even if Skylar Thompson is under center.”

Is Seahawks’ rain dance a blessing or curse?

While Seattle might feel at home in a drizzle, the potential wet conditions could be a double-edged sword for the home team.

On one hand, the Seahawks’ pass defense has been making life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. Their secondary and pass rush have been described as “suffocating” – a nightmare for any signal-caller, let alone a backup like Thompson. As Musgrove notes, “Seattle’s pass defense and pass rush has been making life miserable for backup caliber quarterbacks this season.”

However, Seattle’s kryptonite seems to be their run defense. The Patriots exposed this weakness last week, rushing for a whopping 185 yards. If the rain starts falling, it might just wash away some of Seattle’s defensive edge and open up opportunities for Miami’s ground game.

Adding another layer to this weather-influenced chess match is the former Dolphins now donning Seahawks colors. Jerome Baker, with his 9 total tackles so far this season, could be a key player in shutting down his old team’s running game. Meanwhile, Connor Williams is still finding his footing on Seattle’s offensive line, which could impact their ability to establish their own run game if the weather turns sour.

With the sun setting behind the stands as Sunday’s 4:05 PM EDT kickoff approaches, people from either team will have half a thought turned towards the sky. Maybe these two teams will each have a good half and bad, with the precipitation probability dropping to 9%. From cloudiness now at 80%, during the second quarter it is due to fall all the way down below half that at 62%.

In the NFL, where any given Sunday can surprise us, this Week 3 clash between the Dolphins and Seahawks promises to be a weather-watching, run-game-relying, backup-QB-testing spectacle. As Musgrove predicts, “I believe this will be a close game, but Seattle typically finds ways to win these. I say the Seahawks defend home turf 24-20.”

Catch some more insider information and predictions in the ES ThinkTank episode below starring Doug Sanders.