To be honest, Brandon Aiyuk’s future likely depends on his recovery from the injuries. Last week, the San Francisco 49ers‘s GM, John Lynch, talked about the WR’s status – “He’s doing well. I know coming up here in a couple weeks, there’s kind of a big marker coming up.” Lynch announced Aiyuk’s positive health update and teased the fans to be ready to welcome the player soon. But is it really the case?

Kyle Shanahan’s team is dealing with a lot this offseason. Most recently, they traded one of their key receivers, Deebo Samuel, to the Commanders in exchange for a fifth-round pick. And now, Brandon Aiyuk’s return month and trade rumors are swirling up on the internet. So, what is ahead for him in the future?

According to data-driven injury analyst, MD Deepak Chona on X, “Brandon Aiyuk – Skeptical about serious trade talks.” The doctor informed that there is doubt whether Aiyuk will actually be traded or not. It’s perhaps because either the teams aren’t offering him enough, or the 49ers aren’t eager to move him. Nevertheless, giving an estimate of Aiyuk’s coming out from the ACL MCL injury, as per avg, Chona said, it is “11 months, which would put him at ~Sept-Oct.”

Not only that! The doctor further tried to address the productivity of Brandon Aiyuk in the NFL games whenever he returns. According to him, “Data favors a strong bounce back, but it predicts a lag in production until at least mid-season. Real risk here unless #49ers are willing to take a discount.” So, that means, historically, players recover well from injuries like this, but it takes time to regain full performance. Even if Aiyuk plays early in the season, he might not be at his best until later. But, of course, he’ll need to play to get back to his best.

Now, as the WR is injured, teams are likely be hesitant to trade for him unless Kyle Shanahan’s team lowers their asking price. So, what would it mean financially for Kyle Shanahan’s team and teams who might trade for Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk’s exit would be costly for Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers

Brandon Aiyuk signed a 4-year, $120,000,000 contract extension which puts him through the 2028 season with the Niners. The WR is currently recovering from a catastrophic knee injury he suffered in Week 7. So, as of now, the player hasn’t requested a trade from the team. He has no reason to. But the thing is, moving off of him before his roster bonus kicks in on March 22, the team could save a good amount. However, the situation doesn’t seem that easy here either. Why?

According to Spotrac on X, “Trading WR Brandon Aiyuk,” the new team will be taking on a “4 years, $109.9M” obligation. If we break this amount down, in 2025, the money will be “$24.8M (g’teed).” Then in 2026, it would be “$27M (g’tees 4/1).” Since Aiyuk has been signed with the Niners through 2028, his 2027 contract will be “$28.1M,” and 2028 will be “$30M” – both non-guaranteed. Although there is a potential out in 2027 with a $9.2 million dead cap hit.

On the other hand, the 49ers would take on a dead cap worth $18.4 million—money they still owe Aiyuk as part of his $23 million signing bonus—that will count against their salary cap in 2025. This trade would also result in the 49ers losing $7.2 million in cap space, leading to less financial flexibility this season. So, while the trade would free up future money, it would come with a short-term financial hit for Kyle Shanahan and San Francisco.

With Brock Purdy’s extension looming and the 49ers choosing to swallow Deebo’s $31 million dead cap hit in 2025 alone (by trading him, instead of over two years by releasing him), all signs indicate that they are planning for 2026. But hey, the NFL isn’t won and lost on paper. Just look at what Samuel’s new team achieved last year with a rookie QB. Maybe they’ll get lucky with their draft picks!