Picture this: The 49ers are cruising down Lombardi Lane in a cherry-red ’72 Chevelle, Brock Purdy behind the wheel. But under the hood? A contract negotiation that could either turbocharge their Super Bowl dreams or leave them stranded like the ’90s Chargers. San Francisco’s front office faces a classic American crossroads—fork over premium cash for a QB who feels like the future, or risk becoming another cautionary tale in the NFL’s salary cap graveyard.

On February 27, analysts Mike Florio and Chris Simms lit up Pro Football Talk, warning the 49ers not to repeat the mistakes of 10 franchises that overpaid middling QBs. Purdy’s a system guy, Simms argued. “I think there’s a lot of quarterbacks in football that can go into San Francisco and look really damn good. Shanahan’s a magician.” So, how much should they pay Purdy?

“I just hope they don’t overpay him, and I would be in that low 40s range with him and go again. My main thing would be, go ahead, tell me who else out here in football is going to pay you more than that,” Simms said. Florio piled on, noting Purdy ranked just 12th in passer rating: “He’s a middle of pack starter… middle of the pack meat and potatoes guy who can get it done.” Now, let’s crunch the digits.

Dak Prescott ($60M), Joe Burrow ($55M), and Trevor Lawrence (55M) now dominate the QB market. Purdy? He’s 23−13 as a starter with 8,144 yards and 51 TDs since 2023—solid but not elite. “He’s not Mahomes. He’s not Josh Allen, he’s not Lamar Jackson, he’s not Joe Burrow, and the question is, where do you fit in?” Florio said.

Yet Purdy’s camp likely eyes 50M+ after leading two NFC title runs. The risk? Paying him like a superstar for being a Shanahan creation, as Simms would put it. Remember Jimmy Garoppolo? Elite in Kyle’s system, floundering everywhere else. Besides, San Francisco’s front office knows this dance.

They’ve navigated Deebo Samuel’s tantrums and Nick Bosa’s $170 million megadeal. But Brock Purdy’s different. He’s the everyman hero—Mr. Irrelevant—turned into an MVP candidate. Lynch admitted, “We’ve had high cash spend, and at some point you have to recalibrate a bit… I think we need to get younger. We were the oldest team in football trying to make a run at it last year.” He is correct in this regard, but as Lynch says: ‘There are no guarantees.’

Top Comment by Chris W

When is Shanahan going to figure out he’s got a guy on the roster no one in the league can...more

Share your take

Debate

The price of potential vs. the system savior

Will the 49ers pay for the driver or the car? GM John Lynch confirmed extension talks with Purdy but dropped a reality check: “There are no guarantees that we get something done, but my experience has been when both sides are motivated, there’s ample opportunity to do so, and we’ve been able to do that.” But Purdy’s camp wants Tom Brady money.

Experts, however, see a QB thriving in a Ferrari offense, not a Ford. Florio’s solution: Use the CBA’s “proven performance escalator” to keep Purdy at $5.26M in 2025, then tag him later. But wait—Purdy’s already skipping OTAs, itching for security.

Meanwhile, Lynch is shedding salary (Deebo’s trade, Hargrave’s release) to afford Purdy’s raise. The math is brutal: Pay Purdy $50M+, and the 49ers lose 2−3 starters annually. Yet, as Chase Daniel noted, “Imagine if you get a five-year deal done, or a four-year deal—whatever Brock wants to get done. So, it’s five total years. By the time his new contract’s up, quarterbacks are gonna be going for $70 million. So, if he’s still playing at [this] level three or four years from now, it’s gonna look like a bargain at $54 million.” That’s not just a hefty deal—it’s a gamble.

The deal looks like betting Purdy evolves into Mahomes or accepting he’s Kirk Cousins 2.0. Negotiations hinge on one question: Is Purdy the next Joe Montana or the next Jimmy G?

Lynch’s “no guarantees” line is either a poker face or a neon warning. The 49ers must decide—chase a pricey “perfect” deal or build excellence around a fair one.

So, Niners fans: Would you risk $50M on Brock Purdy’s potential or keep the band together for one more title run? The clock’s ticking…