Texas is in a very dangerous position right now! Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns only faced a lone defeat against Georgia. Going 10-1, they’re No. 3 in the latest AP Poll and College Football Playoff ranking. They’re the top team in the SEC with a 4-win streak. To put it short, they’re among the top teams who have a real shot at clinching the national championship title. Surely one more conference loss can’t mess up this buildup and zap them out of their playoff dreams? But the harsh reality is that may not be the case. 

All the stakes built up to this final game where Texas will face their ultimate life-death battle against Texas A&M on November 30. The winner of this rivalry showdown at Kyle Field will advance to the SEC Championship game against Kirby Smart‘s team next week. It’s simple math for Mike Elko and the Aggies who are 8-3. Their chance to get to the playoffs can get real if they win the SEC championship. But the Longhorns have a different situation. 

With just one loss, Texas is the SEC topper as well as one of the eight FBS one-loss teams. A win will guarantee them a conference game against the Bulldogs and a playoff appearance. But if they lose, they’ll be at the mercy of the CFP’s new 12-team format. This list will include five automatic qualifiers (four Power Four conference winners and the top Group of Five team) and seven at-large selections. But why?

Take a look at Texas’ strength of schedule this season and you’ll see they have some things in common with Curt Cignetti and Indiana. The only time they faced a ranked opponent was when they met Georgia and they blew that chance with a 30-15 defeat. No. 20 Texas A&M will be their second ranked opponent. And if they lose for a second straight ranked game, it just gives off the perception that the Longhorns aren’t a match for elite teams. But not all hope is lost. 

Texas could hang on to the playoffs by a thread 

A loss will clearly wipe Texas out of the top-4 seeds who will each get a first-round bye. But can they still make it among the No. 5-8 seeds to host a playoff game at Royal-Memorial Stadium? Or can’t they at least make it to the No. 9-12 and hit the road? As per CFP rankings, the Longhorns are one of the only three SEC teams – Georgia (9-2) and Tennessee (9-2) – with less than three losses. So they might not be wiped out completely. 

Steve Sarkisian is trying not to get distracted ahead of the big in-state rivalry game. Addressing the media on Monday, he said, ““I don’t really know what the committee thinks and/or needs to do. What I do know is our first goal is trying to go win an SEC championship, and to do that, we have to try to win Saturday. And then when that dust settles, then I think we’ll figure out the CFP and what that looks like.” We can bury ourselves in speculation but only Saturday can bring us the final conclusions before the final playoff rankings are released on December 8.