Over the years, the gulf between the collegiate game and the NFL has steadily been bridged. The coaches playing their trade on the lower rung are savvier than ever, as well as more expansive. From an offensive POV, there’s a ton that translates both schematically and stylistically when a quarterback ascends to the next level. But that said, drafting QBs will perpetually be a crapshoot. There is absolutely no exact science to quantify how a player will take the transition. So, how do evaluators and front offices decide which horse to back? Film and stats can be muddled when some of your contemporaries are future bankers and doctors. But one thing will forever be a good foundational platform to assess prospects, physical tangibles. 

Things like height, size, and arm strength are the more dependable measurables over processing speed while going through your reads. Or mobility in and out of the pocket. One quarterback in this draft class possesses the physical traits to be a very high-ceiling player, albeit the floor is perhaps lower than you’d want. And no, it isn’t Jalen Milroe but instead someone a bit more low-key. An understated sleeper pick that’s been knocking on the door of breaking into the mainstream. Seems like the media, and by extension the masses, are finally catching up.

It’s been baked into discourse around the NFL Draft thoroughly at this point. But it’s worth reiterating how the consensus opinion on this batch of quarterbacks is that it’s relatively weak. Certainly pale in comparison to last year’s QB class. But quality and assurance only go so far when supply isn’t meeting demand. There is a demand for the position group, and always will be. So even though the supply of produce isn’t optimal, players still get bumped up the pecking order. Cream rises to the top, even if it’s because the competition is weak.

Louisville signal-caller Tyler Shough has his fair share of proponents. He’s 6”5 and has a cannon for an arm. Plenty to work off. This, in tandem with the lack of quality elsewhere, has resulted in him being shoved into the conversation for a potential round 1 pick. As hyperbolic as that sounds, draft guru Tom Pellissero certainly thinks so. NFL.com’s Pellissero unveiled a list of “Five potential surprise first-rounders.” The most surprising inclusion was indeed Tyler Shough. “Shough has thrust himself into the next-tier conversation [after Cam Ward] with Shedeur Sanders, Jaxson Dart, and Jalen Milroe — and many scouts and coaches rank him above at least one of those more-heralded players,” said Pellissero to justify his selection.

There’s plenty going in Shough’s favor. The aforementioned ones aside, this is somebody who’s risen above unparalleled adversity. Most in his position would’ve walked away from the game, but Tyler Shough is built differently. Perhaps a little too different, because that adversity ironically stems from his physique, too. His biggest blessing has, begrudgingly, also proven to be his biggest curse. Something Pellissero also threw caution to. Buyer Beware.

A 4-star prospect out of high school, Tyler Shough’s collegiate career saw him traverse 3 programs (!) across 7 years (!!). At the crux of this lack of continuity are injuries, meshed with some bad luck. He began his CFB career as backup to the Chargers’ Justin Herbert at Oregon. When he finally got his chance, COVID-19 blocked his progress and development.  Some lacklustre performances meant he wasn’t guaranteed to start in the long run. He hit the portal and transferred to Texas Tech. In 3 years at Tech, he broke his collarbone, hurt his left shoulder, and then had to be carted off the field with a broken fibula. He’d once again wind up in the portal and come to Louisville. He had a career year there, his only seamless one from start to finish. And now here he is, in the reckoning for the NFL.

Tyler Shough only started 32 games in college, throwing for north of 7,800 yards in total. The small sample size, in conjunction with the injuries, has deterred franchises. Players like Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels have proven that longer college careers with lots of starts actually bode well for QBs when they make the leap to the pros. But these issues haven’t deterred Tom Pelissero, who still thinks Shough’s got the sauce to come off the board on Day 1. Broken bones aren’t a sign of a body breaking down under the pressure of playing football. All 3 of Shough’s major injuries were freak accidents. This isn’t a recurring muscle issue, for instance, that makes him undraftable. But if his being a first-rounder is really how things transpire, it’s not ideal for one of his suitors: Mike MacDonald and the Seattle Seahawks.

Mike MacDonald’s Seahawks are interested in Tyler Shough, but at what cost?

When the Seahawks traded Geno Smith away to the Raiders, the football sphere was left a little confused. Quarterbacks as dependable and experienced are a precious commodity, and while Geno’s got a low-ish ceiling, his floor is really high and stable. But Mike MacDonald and co. pivoted to Sam Darnold. Certainly, the hottest name after breaking the shackles during his stint with the Vikings. But one that comes with question marks of whether Darnold’s coming-out party was his own doing or a result of Kevin O’Connell’s system. Alas, the Seahawks have made their bed with him with a substantial contract. But drafting someone like Tyler Shough makes sense.

Iron sharpens iron. Tyler Shough can initially come as a backup and provide some healthy competition in that QB room. He’s on the Seahawks’ radar and made a visit to the facility earlier this week. Darnold has come in on a relatively short-term deal that the team can get out of after 1 year. So, Shough learning the ropes behind him and being a potential successor down the line is shrewd. However, that essentially goes out the window if he’s drafted on Day 1. MacDonald and the front office cannot use first-round draft capital on someone who’ll initially come in as a backup. 

The Seahawks have been floating in the abyss of mediocrity. Being in the playoff conversation every year, but not good enough to make some actual noise. The middle of the pack is the last place you want to be in the NFL. Tyler Shough is a low-risk, high-reward pick who can propel them upwards in due course. But that risk is only low if he’s available late in the draft. It’ll be interesting to see how the chips fall. But the traction and hype around Shough is one to keep an eye on. It’ll all be crystal clear one week from now.