As hyperbolic as it may sound, Ohio State’s triumph at The Shoe over Tennessee was a program-defining moment. It’s a difficult notion to fathom for a blueblood school with such a fabled history of winning championships. A victory in round 1 of the playoffs can tend to be demoted to regulation or normality. Especially with how the game actually transpired. However, it’s important not to lose sight of the context coming into Saturday.

It seemed like the sky was falling over Columbus as a transcendent horror descended upon campus in a maize and blue form. OSU’s 4th consecutive loss to Michigan raised a lot of questions about HC Ryan Day. But one was particularly prominent- Why didn’t he utilize his overpowering skill-position guys? If there’s one attribute of Ryan Day that’s irrefutable, it’s his adaptability. He and his OC Chip Kelly reworked the offensive game plan and threw it via the air a lot more, leaning on his nation-best wide receiving corp. The result? Emphatic, to say the least. A resounding 42-17 win against the Vols later, the Buckeyes are firmly back in business. A program legend believes they’ve turned enough of a corner to topple the no.1 team in the country.

Former OSU head coach Urban Meyer has made an early pick in the round 2 matchup at the Rose Bowl. This is the rematch from October between Ohio State and Oregon, then played at Autzen. Oregon won marginally, 32-31 owing to a last-second lapse in judgement by Buckeyes’ QB Will Howard. Previewing the fixture over on The Triple Option podcast, Urban Meyer reckons the margins will remain just as close. But in the opposite direction “I have Ohio State [by] a walk off [field goal], winning. But I think it’s going to be a classic.” he claimed. 

Meyer proceeded to elaborate on what Ohio State needs to be wary of most. “Ohio State was shocked by the speed at the receiver [position] when they first played Oregon. It’s probably been two years, certainly this year, [since they] faced anything close to Oregon’s receivers…they were running right by Ohio State’s corners and their safeties.” said Urban Meyer. He then put on his coaching hat and dissected how he’d counteract this issue. [I’ll tell] you how I’d handle it. The defensive backs at Ohio State would not face another scout team receiver the rest of 2024. Because you can’t get shocked. They were shocked by that speed. The corners will be playing against Emeka [Egbuka], Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith this whole week of practice up until the game.” he said.

Oregon’s receiving corp. of Evan Stewart, Traeshon Holden, and Tez Johnson did indeed run rings around the OSU secondary. The trio put up a combined 256 yards on just 15 receptions, facilitated by Heisman finalist Dillon Gabriel. The defense has since come a long way and is unequivocally top-2 in the sport alongside Texas by any metric. Urban Meyer’s suggestion of having them practice against the best of what the Buckeyes, and CFB in general, has to offer is rather shrewd. Who knew a 3x National Champion could coach? However, if the defense has gotten better, so has the adversary’s offense.

Is Urban Meyer falling for an age-old fallacy with this discernment?

Recency bias in any walk of life, but especially sports, is a very real thing. You only tend to factor in the last thing that happened. A fortnight ago, the discourse suggested Ohio State was drawing dead after losing to Michigan. Ryan Day was in over his head, and another season of failure was a foregone conclusion. Fast forward to now, and they’re the best thing since sliced bread. Not to say Urban Meyer is definitively falling victim to this fallacy, or that it even is a fallacy. OSU is great, but so is Oregon.

Out of sight and out of mind. After not seeing Oregon this weekend, it is conspicuous that they’re perhaps going under the radar a little. The last time we saw them, they were themselves dismantling a great Penn State defense in the B1G Championship. Dillon Gabriel and the entire offense, by extension, were humming as they put up 45.

This game is fascinating because the two teams have multiple routes to victory. Either can win leaning on their defense, as well as by getting into an offensive shootout. A lot of each team’s strengths are neutralized by the other. Urban Meyer’s verdict that the margins will be close come the end is therefore reasonable. The oddsmakers agree as well, with Ohio State barely 2.5 point favorites as of right now. However, they actually opened as underdogs. This line change is perhaps another proponent of the aforementioned “recency bias”. After a series of blowouts in round 1, the entire CFB sphere will hope it is indeed a close-fought game. If the last meeting is anything to go by, this is poised to be a Rose Bowl classic for the ages.