Triple Trouble for UNC as Bill Belichick’s Fortunes Turn After Crafty 2025 NFL Masterplan Unearthed

Bill Belichick’s foray into college football was always bound to cause divergent views. The masses are firmly divided on how he’ll fare with UNC. The separation is pretty extreme in nature, too. People are on polar opposite sides of the spectrum. Some believe he’ll take the Tar Heels into the CFP in Year 1, while others think he’ll fall flat on his face. Not due to a lack of coaching prowess but experience traversing this level of the sport. With such extremist POVs, the people who are in charge of providing some objectivity become all the more important. In order to gauge the true expectations. Vegas and the sportsbooks provide that objectivity. However, even they’re seemingly blinded by the allure of Bill Belichick, the proverbial GOAT.

Some of the biggest sportsbooks in the country have leveraged their thoughts on how UNC will perform this season. With all the factors baked in, the win/loss total for them has been set. One revered CFB podcast tried to discern what the total shall be in a bit of a guessing game. “I want to say 5.5, but I think the Belichick brand moves [it to] 6.5,” said host and ACC insider Kenton Gibbs. He couldn’t believe it when he heard the total had actually been set at 7.5. So much so that Gibbs, who proclaimed to have never dabbled with gambling, couldn’t wait to throw money at the under. Through sheer disbelief, he gave his reasons, too.

“Bring me that under. I need that under biblically…bestow me with that under,” exclaimed Kenton Gibbs over the “Locked on ACC” podcast. His co-host, Alex Donno, concurred with the sentiment that the line was high. “This could be the one,” he said. Vegas is way too shrewd and calculative to have a major discrepancy in the betting line. They’re in the business of making money, after all, not facilitating it for the public. So why are Gibbs and Donno so pessimistic about Bill Belichick’s Tar Heels? They presented 3 main reasons. By the end of which, the rationale that 8 wins is too high of a threshold for Belichick to breach became more apparent.

First up, Gibbs addressed the elephant in the room. He asked a rhetorical question that pierces through a lot of the lofty expectations set for Bill Belichick. “Quick question, who the h— is their quarterback?” he asked. Alex Dunno nodded side to side to imply how they have no conspicuous solution for the most important position on the field. Gibbs stated that Belichick is going to deploy “a quarterback that probably has not played any meaningful Division 1 football.” Speaking of Belichick, his own inexperience became reason #2. Gibbs implied how a “first-time HC,” which he is on the collegiate level, mind you, was going to go through growing pains and an adjustment period. Reason #3 was another offensive issue Belichick will have to contend with.

“[UNC has] a running back room that just lost one of [their] greatest rushers of all time,” said Gibbs. The Tar Heels have just lost tailback Omarion Hampton to the NFL draft. To contextualize how big a deficit this is for Belichick, Hampton has received 2x First-Team All-American and 2x First-Team All-ACC honors the past 2 seasons. Including gaudy production that Belichick never got his hands on. Despite a relatively soft schedule, it’s not a far cry to suggest 8 wins seem like a lot for UNC. “I need this; I want this. I have to have it. Get it to me now!” reiterated Kenton Gibbs about the under 7.5 win-total bet. One eye on the absolute overhaul that Bill Belichick has begun in Chapel Hill will also suggest this program is perhaps going to take time to reach those standards. 

Bill Belichick extends his NFL-focused vision to his recruits and Pat McAfee

Earlier in the week, Bill Belichick guested on The Pat McAfee Show. He was asked, “How similar will the setup be in the building down there [in Chapel Hill] compared to what it was in Foxborough?” Turns out, not as different as you’d think. Belichick doesn’t have NFL pros at his service. However, he understands what it takes to be one, and that’s what the modus operandi is. “Pretty similar…except it would be in Carolina blue and have the Jordan logo on I,t” remarked Belichick. He’s trying to build the New England Patriots 2.0. This isn’t hyperbole. Even his own players have said this.

2026 5-star QB commit Jared Curtis has said, “[Belichick and his staff are] bringing their NFL playbook to North Carolina. It’s going to be the exact same as the NFL, and it’s the place you’re going to go to get prepared for the league.” This seems to be what Bill Belichick is preaching to the choir when he’s out recruiting these kids. A recent signee from the class of ‘25, QB Au’Tori Newkirk, said something similar. “The focus with this new staff is on preparing everything for the next level. Everything is being run like it’s the next level. The motto is that we’re going to be the 33rd team in the NFL.”

Bill Belichick himself told Pat McAfee “We’ve had a couple players come through here [at UNC from] the Patriots program. They watch the workout here and say this to the Carolina players—‘Yup, that’s the exact same program we did!’ Same running program, same lifting program. So yeah, we’re just taking the Patriot program, what we did in New England, and bringing it here.”

He’s even tagged along Michael Lombardi, a long-time NFL exec, as GM for the football operations. A capacity that’s not traditionally present in College Football. Bill Belichick is gearing up for long-term, sustained success. Even if he has to go about it the hard way. Kenton Gibbs’ discernment that UNC will struggle to breach 7.5 wins is a fair assessment. However, when has conventional wisdom ever prevailed in this sport? Expect the unexpected.