For years, Kirby Smart has recruited, developed, and stockpiled talent better than anyone not named Nick Saban. That model, which helped send 34 Georgia players to the NFL in the last four drafts, was built on a foundation of long-term development. The Bulldogs routinely signed top-five classes, redshirted blue-chip players, and allowed them to grow behind future pros. That system no longer works. Not because Smart lost his touch, but because the system he mastered is being legislated out of existence.

With the House v. NCAA settlement expected to be finalized this month, college football is on the verge of capping roster sizes at 105 players while also introducing revenue-sharing models that may reach $20 million annually per Power Four program. That alone would be a major recalibration for most programs. But for Smart, it’s a foundational disruption. The walk-on pipeline that once produced key depth pieces and late-round NFL picks? It’s now in direct competition for roster space. The ability to stack multiple blue-chips at the same position and let them develop over time? That becomes a liability under a cap, especially when NIL agents are calling to shop offers.

If you think the turnover is just theoretical, think again. Georgia lost 15 players in the winter transfer window alone, and more are expected to leave in April. According to former ESPN analyst David Pollack, the numbers could spike even further. “I think you’re going to have 25-plus portal additions. I’d be shocked if you don’t get to 30. I think you’ll get to 35 like that is the kind of action you’ll get in the portal,” he said recently. Smart has weathered portal waves before, but those losses were always offset by large freshman classes and strong internal development.

This reality has already prompted rare frustration from Smart. Speaking at a recent press conference, he had said, “What’s going on right now is not good for anybody.” Even Smart’s system of scouting and retention is being tested. On a recent episode of UGA Football on Dawg Post, the hosts underscored this. “I think they probably have to adapt the way they do things a little more. I know Kirby doesn’t want to try to simplify the way he does it, but in this era of college football, every year there’s probably going to be this amount of new players with the transfer portal and the incoming freshmen that they see in spring practice.” 

Smart hasn’t restocked at the pace he typically does. Georgia has added just six transfers to offset those 15 departures. While the Bulldogs signed a robust 28-man freshman class, only a fraction of those players are expected to contribute early.

One of the biggest losses in this new era of college football is the slow development arc. Players like Jordan Davis, Tae Crowder, and Devonte Wyatt took years to grow into their roles. Georgia had the roster flexibility to invest in that kind of long-term upside. But with a 105-player cap coming, that flexibility is vanishing. That same pressure is squeezing the walk-on program. Georgia built a reputation for turning undervalued talent into production. Stetson Bennett, Dan Jackson, and Ladd McConkey all emerged from overlooked beginnings. In a capped roster world, those opportunities get tighter.

But control has always been Smart’s game. If this new model demands contracts, buyouts, and hard choices, don’t expect him to flinch. He might even find a way to outsmart it, but the direction college football is heading, he’s definitely not a fan.

Kirby Smart expresses concern over the new CFB era

Kirby Smart looked skeptical and wary of the sweeping changes proposed in the new model after April 7th. He also stressed and pondered the 105-player cap, which, in his words, could make things more ‘complicated.’ Smart especially emphasized the pointless nature of the cap number that has been expected to be put in by the House v. NCAA settlement.

“So the 105 number, the NIL number, what’s the cap number, what is this going to be? There’s stuff going on right now, guys in college football. I mean, there is people reaching out to have a Zoom call and present all the players they represent that are on teams, including our team. You wanna get on this Zoom and look at all of these players? Well, some of them are mine.”

All in all, it looks like Kirby Smart needs to accept the harsh reality of the transfer window, which is going to start on 14th April, hence its importance. However, with the changing reality, many coaches have started putting in contracts to bind players from leaving, which could be done only after paying a stipulated buyout sum. Could this be the direction towards which Smart can ultimately head after the settlement announcement?