To advance to the CFP semifinals, the Oregon and OSU will play a brutal rematch at the Rose Bowl on Wednesday. One of the most exciting contests of the regular year was their first encounter, which Oregon won in a stunning 32-31 victory in Eugene on October 12. The CFP paths of each team would have probably been very different if a few plays during that game had gone differently.

One of these plays, which sparked significant debate, occurred during the game’s last possession as OSU was trying to mount a game-winning run with a one-point deficit. At the Oregon 21-yard line, OSU QB Will Howard hit standout WR Jeremiah Smith with 22 seconds remaining, putting the Buckeyes comfortably into game-winning field goal position. And Smith was penalized for offensive pass interference, forcing OSU to return to the Ducks’ 43-yard line. But Smith had not yet handled the penalty prior to the Rose Bowl.

Why is Jeremiah Smith calling it a “crazy call”?

Smith said, “I think about that call probably every day,” in a video clip about the call that CBS Sports posted on December 29. “It was a crazy call. The DB was holding me; I just cleared his hands“. Moreover, he said, “I guess receivers can’t be physical in football anymore, but DBs could hold 10 yards, 15 yards down the field. It’s behind me. I know the move from here on out when the DB is grabbing me. I guess you can’t be physical as a receiver in college football anymore. We’ll just see how things play out in this game.” It just means that the outstanding receiver will be more aware during the following bowl game.

However, you know, as per the game day clip, Smith did much more than just clean Ducks DB Nikko Reed’s hands. Thus, the call against him was accurate, but it came at a critical and late point in the game. A call of that size is sure to irritate Smith, particularly if it’s a flag that isn’t thrown frequently. But what precisely transpired on that game day, you might wonder?

Well, in that game, OSU’s momentum was stopped when Jeremiah Smith was flagged for a critical offensive pass inference with 22 seconds left. From the Ducks 28-yard line, Smith took a 10 yard comeback route and pushed the Ducks DB at his chance to score. Even though Howard’s 9 yard pass to Smith ought to have put OSU well within the field goal spectrum, the Buckeyes retreated after it was penalized.

The question now is whether OSU can avoid such a scenario in the upcoming Rose Bowl. However, the question that remains more significant is who, in the opinion of experts, has the best chance of winning that bowl game.

OSU or Oregon—who’s gonna win?

In Week 7 of the 2024 CFB season, Oregon’s thrilling victory over OSU at home was one of the most memorable moments. Now, at the Rose Bowl in the CFP quarterfinals, the two now face battle again with far greater stakes. In this matchup with the gifted Buckeyes, who looked overpowering in their home victory over Vols in the first round, the unbeaten Ducks are the slight underdogs.

OSU has a 2.5-point advantage, while the over/under is 55.5 points. Simulations indicate that Oregon has a 46.4% chance of winning while OSU will win 53.6% of the time. The OSU team is predicted to win by a mere 1.3 points. Given Oregon’s confidence and capacity to cover the spread, some observers forecast a close game with a 31-28 victory.

But keep in mind that they are all only predictions, so don’t rely on them to decide the bowl game’s ultimate victor. A penalty, an injury, or anything else could occur on the field. Right now. Let’s see if Jeremiah Smith’s squad can overcome the Ducks and win.