It took a stunning upset from Vanderbilt against Alabama to catapult Diego Pavia into overnight stardom. Pavia threw for 252 yards on 12.6 yards per attempt and added 56 rushing yards as the Commodores to a first win over an AP top-five-ranked team in program history. Not only did it make Pavia a national sensation, but his name was on the Heisman Trophy radar. In one of the polls, he was placed fourth behind only a few marquee names. But ahead of the new college football, Pavia finds himself way down the pecking order.

Pavia’s story is as unorthodox as his game. After earning MVP honors in the Birmingham Bowl, where he accounted for five touchdowns (three passing, two rushing), he successfully petitioned the NCAA for an extra year of eligibility. His argument? Time spent at junior college shouldn’t count against his clock. The court agreed, granting Pavia a rare second act. Still, it doesn’t seem to convince the Heisman oddsmakers.

USA Today odds have him sitting at a staggering +18,000 to win the 2025 Heisman Trophy. This led SEC insiders like Mike and Cousin Shane from That SEC Football Podcast to feel baffled as Mike emphatically said, “Deigo Pavia 180 to one? These are crazy odds.”

Speaking live on the podcast on Wednesday, Mike added, “I’m not saying he’s the favorite, but I would have thought he’s closer to 25 to one or something like that. Just ‘cause he’s a big star. What they could do at Vanderbilt… if they win eight games this year, if they surprise some people, you beat Alabama, you win eight nine games… how are you not going to reward Diego Pavia with some hardware?”

Statistically, Pavia’s numbers from 2024 don’t leap off the page like the Buffs winner Travis Hunter. He threw for 2,293 yards and 20 touchdowns with just four interceptions. He also led Vandy (7-6) in rushing with 800 yards and eight touchdowns. But stats don’t tell the whole story.

As Shane pointed out, “Statistically, he didn’t wow you—you just had to watch the game. So if you get more eyeballs on Vanderbilt, then he may have an opportunity to compete for this. By God Mike the tail end of the season you’re looking at Texas, Tennessee teams like that those there are going to be opportunities to kind of steal that momentum.”

Last season, Vanderbilt had its best regular season since 2018 at 6-6 with Pavia the center of the attention. His performance against Alabama quickly led to his name being whispered as a Heisman candidate. In The Athletic’s Heisman straw poll, Pavia received some third-place votes and sat behind only Travis Hunter, Ashton Jeanty, and Cam Ward. CBS Sports’ Danny Kanell also updated his Heisman Top 5 after Week 7’s action to include Pavia in the list at five.

However, Pavia is placed outside the top 50 for the Heisman trophy odds in the coming season and there might be good reason for it.

Vanderbilt isn’t exactly synonymous with national title contention. The Commodores haven’t sniffed an SEC title game, let alone a playoff spot. After an impressive 4-2 start to the season that included wins over Alabama and Kentucky, they lost momentum. While they recovered to be at 6-3 with three games to go, a winless end to the season left them with an underwhelming feeling.

Shane pointed out how this affected Pavia’s Heisman chances saying, “He was talked about in ‘24 right until they fell off a little bit toward the end of the season.”  Yet in 2024, they showed flashes of what could be, with Pavia at the center of it all.  In the game against Bama on October 5, the 6-foot quarterback from Albuquerque, New Mexico outplayed the one-time favorite to win the 2024 Heisman Trophy in Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe.

For the upcoming season, though their schedule doesn’t look easy it gives them a chance to cause an upset or two.

Beginning with a game against Charleston Southern, they face four of this season’s top six SEC finishers on the road. Trips to Texas and Alabama will be daunting while the Week 2 matchup at Virginia Tech won’t be an easy affair either. However, if Pavia is able to lead Vandy to victories over a couple of marquee teams, it’ll be hard to ignore him.

Having led Vanderbilt to its first winning campaign since 2013 and with a renewed hunger following his NCAA waiver, Pavia will be looking to build on 2024’s momentum. While he is not seen as the Heisman favorite for now, he has the chance to prove his doubters wrong once again.

Heisman talk aside, Diego Pavia has that ‘want it all’ mentality

Diego Pavia has a bold plan for Vanderbilt football in 2025, and it’s as clear as day: “I want to win it all.” The quarterback isn’t holding back on his ambitions, and his confidence is infectious. “As long as the food chain is how it is—Coach (Clark) Lea, Coach (Jerry) Kill, and everyone stays—I’ll be here too,” Pavia said. “But I mean, other than that, I want to win it all.”

Pavia’s fire aligns perfectly with the mindset of Vanderbilt’s coaching staff. Chief consultant Jerry Kill, a vital piece of the Commodores’ puzzle, confirmed to The Tennessean that he’s returning for the 2025 season, keeping continuity on their side. Head coach Clark Lea also spoke with pride about the team’s resilience, especially Pavia’s journey.

“I talked to the team today about redemption stories—how the best parts of humanity are these moments where we’re knocked down, but we get back up and fight,” Lea shared. “That’s what this team is about, and that’s what Diego is. His background, all the challenges he’s faced, they’ve made him the competitor he is.” Pavia wants it all, and with Coach Lea and Kill on his side, he just might get it and who knows those Heisman odds might just swing in his favor.