Whoever followed on from Lincoln Riley in Oklahoma was drinking from a poisoned chalice. The roster he left behind for his successor wasn’t in great shape. The turnover required within the program was of seismic proportions. 3 years into the Brent Venables era, aftershocks from this seismic shift are still reverberating across the epicenter, Norman. The problem for OU is that the shocks aren’t quite dissipating—in fact, they are tearing up the foundation. The house that Bob Stoops built and Riley supervised is standing rather precariously under the care of coach Venables. The foreseeable future of this blueblood is a concern now, not just among fans but also the media.

Heavy is the head that wears the crown. Coaching a storied program like the Oklahoma Sooners sure has its perks. You are nurturing some of the best talent in the country, with almost imperishable resources to attain said talent. It carries a certain prestige and eminence. People yearn to be in Brent Venables’ position with envy. However, the ground you stand on at that level is rather fickle. One misstep can send you tumbling down the abyss of once-revered, now-forgotten head coaches.

After being afforded growing pains in year 1, Venables led OU to a double-digit win season in year 2. Then came about realignment to the SEC, and things took a turn for the worse. A below .500 season means Venables enters 2025 on the proverbial hot seat. At least according to AYS Sports’ Blake Ruffino. Who reckons, maybe harshly, that his new QB1 John Mateer is the last roll of the dice?

Apart from results on the field, OU has also lost traction on the recruiting front. Some of the sheen wore off after a 6-7 year, which culminated in a loss to a service academy in the Bowl game. The down year has inadvertently caused players to perceive them in a different light, lower down the hierarchy. As many as 29 players left Norman through the transfer portal this offseason. To his credit, Brent Venables managed to subsidize this depletion of personnel fairly well.

But of the 15 incoming portal acquisitions, it’s QB John Mateer who invokes the most confidence. headed into 2025. John Mateer has transferred over from Washington State after 3 years with the Cougars. He replaces former 5-star Jackson Arnold, who himself has moved across the southeastern faction to Auburn. Speaking over “The Ruffino & Joe Show” Blake Ruffino and his co-host Joe DeLeone discussed Venables from a job security POV.

After a back and forth with entailed, DeLeone suggested Venables is afforded some “wiggle room” due to it being his first year in the SEC and the gauntlet of a schedule he had to traverse; Ruffino came to the conclusion that “It’s all chips in on John Mateer.” DeLeone hesitantly concurred with this sentiment. See, the Mateer piece of this is more layered than just his individuality. Alongside Mateer comes Oklahoma’s new OC Ben Arbuckle, also from Washington State. There’s been a rationale that while defensive whiz and dedicated play-caller Venables has been doing well on his side of the football, the offense is what’s ultimately the thorn in his side. Which is fair. The Sooners had the worst offense in the conference last season. This means one thing is definitive.

Brent Venables now has a new QB-OC pair that already has experience working together. If this doesn’t work, then even a solid defense won’t shield him from scrutiny. He’s head coach, after all, not defensive coordinator. Hiring the right staff is a requisite aspect. He’ll hope the Ben Arbuckle and Mateer-spearheaded offense can complement his defense and add to the win column. If not, things could get really tricky.

All that’s then safeguarding him is the $44.8 million buyout it’ll cost the program to cut ties. However, that falls to a relatively more feasible $34.9 million after the 2025 season. He did sign an extension just over a year ago, but that will only take him so far. Out of the 8 losing seasons OU has had since World War II, Venables has been in charge for two. It’s not a great look. That said, a couple of other analysts are quite optimistic about the Sooners as a collective headed into 2025. The reason? Mateer again.

If Brent Venables’ future is indeed linked to John Mateer, it’s not the worst spot to be in

On3’s Andy Staples and Ari Wasserman have vocalized their expectations for John Mateer and OU. There’s a consensus feeling of positivity. Wasserman prepared a list of 10 “CFB teams with breakout potential.” When discussing it over the On3 YouTube channel, he realized an oversight. “OU is a team that probably should have been on that list Because I actually think that OU is going to have a very, very good year,” he said. “They have a chance with John Mateer and [Ben] Arbuckle.” 

Andy Staples also believes that the Sooners are due for an upturn. Largely owing to John Mateer’s arrival. “We saw a lot of John Mateer last year. My thing is, whoever got John Mateer [was] going to be really good on offense,” he remarked. Ari proceeded to place some very high praise on the QBs shoulders. Praise that carries with itself a weight of expectation. 

“John Mateer might be somebody who’s in New York next year, like, that’s where we’re at with him,” he said. Ironically, the 2026 NFL Draft will be the first one not to take place in New York in about a decade. But the point still stands. “They’re going to be better. I’m expecting a lot, and it’s a big year for Brent Venables,” he added. Even with all this optimism, that last bit is a microcosm of the overarching sentiment around Velables. It’s a “big year” indeed. This affirmation, though, will go some way in dispelling concern around Norman. It’ll be interesting to see just how the pieces fall.