The clock struck midnight on a couple of Cinderella stories this weekend. The CFP first round was an equalizer which exacted every ounce of fairy dust with a reality check. Teams from the perceived “weaker” conferences got found out. From a neutral persuasion, the games were all anticlimactic blowouts. One fixture that teased having life late on was Texas vs Clemson. A late surge from the Tigers had some in Austin twitching in their seats. But alas, a goal-line stand from Texas in the 4th quarter was a microcosm of their all-conquering defense. 2 downs to protect 1 yard against a Clemson team showing signs of life, and the Longhorns saw it out.

With every underdog losing handily, fans are now seeking a new fairytale to latch onto. The one that’s conspicuous, though, involves some Sun Devils. Kenny Dillingham-led Arizona State Sun Devils are poised to take on Texas in round 2 at the Peach Bowl. Instinctively, the matchup screams being yet another non-contest. The oddsmakers concur with that notion. Texas are 2-touchdown favorites, the largest spread of any game in round 2. So how does CFB savant David Pollack see things panning out?

While breaking down the Texas-Clemson game over on his namesake YouTube channel, Pollack rhetorically asked, “How does Arizona State hang with Texas? I mean-immediate reaction-[Cam] Skattebo is going to have to be big. But, that’s what Texas is. Texas has girth and size and physicality. Like, they don’t have to commit a bunch of guys to the passing game. They play zone. That’s a tough, tall task for Arizona state.” A

Arizona State’s offense is shouldered by star running back Cam Skettobo. He finished 5th in the Heisman voting, so we’re talking the real deal here. Yet, David Pollack believes Texas’ front 7 will be able to neutralise the run game.

“That’s a tough matchup, going to play Texas. Because of the skill at every level of the defense, the tackling in every level of defense. Skattebo lives on missed tackles and making those plays. Texas doesn’t miss a lot of tackles, man. You watch them consistently-the first guy gets them on the ground. I think they’re the best tackling team I’ve seen in the country this year. That’s how, that’s how good they’ve been,” he said.

With the rampant discourse about the discrepancy in conference strength on display in round 1, most would disregard the Arizona State Sun Devils as another product of a poorly derived CFP format. That is true to a certain extent, especially since they were afforded a bye. However, Pollack’s comments aren’t an indictment of ASU. 

Arizona State have stylistically been dealt the short end of the stick

Arizona State is riding a 6-game winning streak and are unequivocally one of the most in-form teams in the country. The reasons for being skeptical about how they’ll “hang with Texas” are almost entirely due to Texas’ own excellence. The issues pertaining to why this game may end up being a lopsided affair are multifold. 

Styles make fights. That combat-sport cliche translates to the gridiron just the same. The glaring issue for ASU in this fight is that Texas’ own style is the antidote to theirs. Essentially, Arizona State’s makeup under HC Kenny Dillingham is counteracted by the Longhorns’ own identity. ASU has won seven 1-score games this season.

A huge proponent of edging out their opponents has been that they win the turnover battle almost each time. Dillingham and co. have the 2nd fewest turnovers across the FBS. They complement this with a rushing game thanks to Cam Skattebo and their O-line. Not turning the football over in tandem with controlling the line of scrimmage- the oldest concoction for success in the sport.

On the flip side, Texas are the 3rd best at forcing TOs. They’re also the 13th-best defense against the run. Merely scratching the surface makes it quite clear why Arizona State is facing a wall, both literally and figuratively. Add to this, intangible factors such as big-game experience, which Texas has been revelling in recently. ASU showed they belonged in this echelon when they beat Iowa State in Jerry World for the Big 12 championship. Kenny Dillingham will hope to carry some of that momentum into Atlanta on New Year’s Day.