Arch Manning ‘the last Manning’ standing is ready to start his own offensive era with the keys to his Texas Longhorns’ Lambo. Austin has waited, debated, and at times outright begged to see Manning take over, and now, in 2025, they’re finally getting what they wanted. Quinn Ewers has moved on, and it’s Arch’s time. But with great expectations comes an even greater microscope. A quarterback with just two career starts is now tasked with leading a program that believes it has national championship potential. That’s a fine line to walk, and the biggest question is whether Manning can make that leap from promising talent to immediate superstar.

While Arch Manning’s experience is limited, his flashes of brilliance have been undeniable. In his brief appearances, he’s accounted for 12 touchdowns against just two interceptions, showing poise under pressure and an ability to stretch the field with his deep ball. His athleticism has also been a revelation, breaking away from the traditional pocket-passer mold associated with his famous football lineage. But college football is rarely kind to quarterbacks with little experience.

The Horns open the season against Ohio State—a baptism by fire for a player still learning the ropes. From there, it’s a gauntlet: road trips to Florida and Georgia, the annual showdown with Oklahoma, and a late-season clash with Texas A&M. Arch Manning will be tested early and often, and in a world where hype fuels perception, the margin for error is razor-thin. That’s exactly why some analysts are pumping the brakes on the Manning hype train. On On3’s podcast, Andy and Ari posed the question that many have hesitated to ask: What if Arch is just fine?

They laid it out bluntly, “I don’t think he’s gonna stink, but you mention what if he’s just fine and what if Texas isn’t?” It’s a fair concern. The Longhorns enter the year as a trendy pick for the No. 1 team in the country, but if Manning isn’t the instant star many assume he’ll be, what happens next? “If he’s not a superstar, it’s going to feel like a disappointment,” they continued, acknowledging the sheer level of expectation weighing on the young quarterback. The narrative is already set: either Manning shines, or he’s the latest overhyped prospect who didn’t live up to the billing.

Steve Sarkisian, however, isn’t entertaining that conversation. If anything, he’s doubling down on his belief that the 6’4” passers’ path has unfolded exactly as it should. “I’m excited for Arch. I feel like his progression has been perfect,” Sarkisian said, emphasizing the value of the two years Manning spent behind Ewers. The Longhorns head coach has watched firsthand how his young thrower has matured, noting, “A chance for a couple years to be with Quinn and to learn who we are systematically. But, B, just to watch how Quinn has handled things.” Manning, according to Sarkisian, has absorbed everything—how to handle adversity, how to lead a locker room, and most importantly, how to prepare like a starter.

And while Manning’s playing experience may be limited, Sarkisian points to one key factor that should help ease the transition: he’s already gotten his feet wet in SEC play. “For Arch, the beauty for us is he got two starts for us this past year, and he started our SEC opener against Mississippi State,” Sarkisian noted. Those reps, even in a small sample size, gave Manning a taste of what it takes to command an offense at the highest level of college football.

Now, the focus shifts to leadership. “We’re watching him in winter workouts and the off-season stuff, really becoming the leader of the team like the quarterback has to be.” For all the debate surrounding whether Manning is ready, his head coach sees a player who’s embracing the challenge rather than shrinking from it. So now, the question isn’t just about Arch Manning—it’s about Texas as a whole. The Longhorns are built to win now, and Manning’s growth will dictate just how high their ceiling really is. If he’s as good as advertised, Texas is a legitimate national title contender.

But if he’s simply solid, as some skeptics predict, then Sarkisian’s masterplan could hit a roadblock.

Urban Meyer Pumps the Brakes on Arch Manning Heisman Hype

Well, what did you expect from a former rival coach? Urban Meyer isn’t exactly ready to crown Texas’ legacy quarterback Manning as the 2025 Heisman favorite—not yet, at least. During a recent episode of “The Triple Option” podcast, Meyer and Fox Sports’ Rob Stone broke down the 2025 Heisman race, where Manning is currently tied for the best odds (+800) with LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, according to FanDuel. But Meyer? He’s not convinced.

“Arch Manning’s number one at +700, as far as the betting,” Meyer said. “Arch Manning, to be determined. I said that, and I think some Texas fans got a little upset, saying he’s the next coming. He might be; he’s really good. He’s only thrown 90 passes and had nine touchdowns, two picks.” Translation? Manning’s potential is undeniable, but Meyer is waiting for real proof before buying into the hype. And honestly, can you blame him?

A Heisman frontrunner means delivering on the field, not just in the sportsbook. If Arch can light it up in 2025, Meyer will have to eat his words. Until then? “To be determined.”