For maybe the next few years, it will be impossible to bring up Tennessee football without the name Nico Iamaleava crashing into the conversation. After the infamous $4 million NIL fiasco and a playoff appearance in 2024, the Vols looked like they were poised to stay among heavyweights. Instead, the 2025 offseason has been nothing short of a whirlwind, highlighted by Nico’s transfer to UCLA and a cloud of uncertainty hanging over Josh Heupel’s once-ascendant program. With a battered roster and a locker room that insiders whisper is cracking at the seams, Heupel now faces the most pivotal season of his Vols tenure, with the weight of expectations colliding head-on with brutal reality.

And if you think the pessimism is just fan chatter, think again. In his latest SEC power rankings, That SEC’s Mike didn’t hold back. “Tennessee number 12, playoff to number 12, I’m not feeling good about this,” he said. “The only thing we can say great about Tennessee is the schedule. I mean, yeah, they do have a schedule that could get you to nine wins, could get you to eight again. This ain’t the schedule game. This is if Tennessee were to meet, let’s say, South Carolina on a neutral field, who am I picking right now? I have Tennessee as the 12th best team in the conference.” It’s a stunning fall from grace for a program that was flexing its muscles just months ago—and the cracks go beyond the surface…..

Across the offense, key contributors are gone. Not just Nico, the entire offensive line is a wreck with four of five starters replaced, and the one returner, Lance Heard, was called a “joke” by Vols faithful after an underwhelming 2024 campaign. Mike didn’t stop there, offering a grim rundown of the attrition that’s left Knoxville reeling. “You lose the SEC Offensive Player of the Year at running back. Receiving corps, totally new. You bring your tight end back, he suffers a devastating injury in spring and may miss the start of the season. You bring back an All-American at corner, he tears his ACL. They just had several linemen off the defense drafted. I know the defensive line is not completely barren or anything, but that’s going to be tough to replace as well,” he said. The description sounded less like an offseason report and more like reading off a casualty list. “I’m not feeling good about Tennessee right now,” he admitted.

“I think Josh Heupel’s an elite coach. He’s got to prove it this year though. If they get to eight and four, I think that’s maybe his best coaching job with this roster that he’s got coming in this year,” Mike added.

As if the atmosphere needed any more gasoline on the fire, another respected voice added his own sobering perspective. ESPN’s Josh Pate, speaking candidly about the situation, dismissed any notion that an 8-4 season would represent Tennessee’s “worst-case scenario.” “My buddy hits me and he says, ‘What if the worst were to happen this year? What if they go 8-4?’” Pate recalled. “And I said, ‘Excuse me? The worst? Being 8-4? They may have gone 8-4 with Nico. The worst? You don’t know much about Tennessee football if you think the worst is 8-4. This is a very, very new concept in the modern age, Tennessee having the audacity to fancy itself a perennial Playoff contender.” Pate’s larger point rang loud and clear: the idea that Tennessee could weather any storm simply because of last season’s success is deeply misguided.

With Nico or without Nico, Heupel & Co. still had over 160 starts to replace on the offensive line. With or without Nico, they had questions at wide receiver. Questions at running back. “You’re re-tooling your defense,” he added. It’s a cold reminder that success in college football is a rental, not a mortgage. “The ice is so much thinner in this sport than you ever think it is. You don’t get to carry over success. Because you made the Playoff last year, it doesn’t raise the floor to where…” His voice trailed off, but the meaning was unmistakable—Tennessee is teetering on the edge of a major step back.

For Josh Heupel, who once guided the Vols out of a decade-long football drought, this season isn’t just about wins and losses; it’s about demonstrating that the foundation he established wasn’t built on shaky ground. After all, there’s a massive difference between weathering a few roster losses and trying to construct an entire new identity on the fly.

Josh Heupel tried to nab Avery Johnson—but Kansas State built a wall

The Vols went QB shopping this spring, and their eyes quickly landed on Kansas State’s electric dual-threat, Avery Johnson. With the transfer portal heating up, Tennessee made their move—but it didn’t get very far. Kansas State wasn’t having any of it, shutting things down fast.

“We got a (expletive) wall built around him,” a Kansas State source told ESPN’s Chris Low, Max Olson, and Adam Rittenberg. “They better bring the Tennessee National Guard.” Talk about locking it down!

And you can see why Kansas State was so protective. Johnson put up monster numbers in 2024, throwing for 2,712 yards and 25 touchdowns against just 10 picks—exactly the kind of production Tennessee would’ve loved to bring to Rocky Top. Off the field, Johnson’s marketability is just as eye-popping. On3’s NIL projection has him worth a cool $1.7 million.

Tennessee didn’t just stop with Johnson, either. ESPN reported that the Vols kicked the tires on other Power Four quarterbacks like Illinois’ Luke Altmyer and TCU’s Josh Hoover. But, in a twist of portal fate, none of them entered the transfer pool. Now, Josh Heupel is left to roll with what he’s got in the QB room. No Tennessee National Guard required.