On December 21st, Beaver Stadium in Pennsylvania will host a battle between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the SMU Mustangs. Which team will prevail? Well, both teams enter with 11-2 records after impressive seasons. Penn State, despite falling to Oregon (45-37) in the Big Ten Championship, earned their spot. SMU, after a hard-fought loss to Clemson (34–31) in the ACC Championship, is ready to make a statement. So this one’s going to be a classic.

Right now, one team seems to have a slight edge. But before we even think about who’s going to win, we need to check the weather. If the weather doesn’t play ball, all our predictions will be useless. Let’s see what the forecast says.

How’s the weather for the playoff game?

Weather.com predicts that the game day will be bright with a mix of clouds, with a high temperature of about 30 degrees Fahrenheit and northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph. With a low temperature of 12°F and northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph, the sky will be partly cloudy at night. As a result, it will be a chilly night, but the snow at State College is currently the biggest worry. Is snowfall a possibility?

There is a 25% chance of snow, according to Yahoo Sports columnist Dan Wetzel’s X post. It’s safe to argue that this proportion wouldn’t be too detrimental to the smooth continuation of the Penn State vs. SMU game.

You will discover an important aspect of this game, though, if you delve deeper into weather forecasting. That day’s weather prediction calls for frigid temperatures, with highs of 30°F and lows of 12°F. Since the SMU team is not used to such chilly temperatures, there is also a chance that snow would hamper the game, which might have a big impact on their performance.

Since most of SMU’s players are from Texas, the weather could have a big impact on the game. This will be one of the coldest environments the school has ever played in. With a “weather shock rating” of four out of five, the result of the game is very susceptible to natural forces. Snow and low temps in State College are consequently expected to affect the matchup between Penn State and SMU, which could affect the performances of both teams, particularly SMU. Don’t worry, though! The winner is determined by more than just the weather.

Winning probability: Penn State vs. SMU

The Mustangs recently suffered a close defeat to the Clemson Tigers in the ACC Game. Although the loss is painful, it is noteworthy that the program participated in the conference game for the first time. But starting with the CFP’s first round, Rhett Lashlee and company want more. On the other hand, the loss to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship prevented James Franklin and Co. from clearing their name. Can Franklin lead his team to victory over SMU as a heavy favorite?

According to predictions, SMU has a about 24% probability of winning the game, while Penn State has a 34% chance. If there is any explanation to be cautious about Penn State, it is James Franklin’s track record of doing poorly under pressure.

Additionally, SMU’s offensive success rate is ranked 48th in the country, while PSU’s defense is ranked 19th. Lions’ defense ranks ninth in defensive net points per drive, while SMU is 28th in offensive net points per drive. Hence, the Mustangs are just outperformed by the numbers. Let’s see if the weather plays nice or plays spoilsport for the Mustangs.