Is SMU ready for a cold winter adventure at State College? In a few days, we’re going to witness some weather-impacted games in the first ever 12-team playoffs. For poor Rhett Lashlee and the Mustangs, they’ve fallen short of both man and nature’s favor. Meanwhile, James Franklin and Penn State await their No. 11 seed opponent with a harsh cold welcome. And as the days only get colder up north, a former Nittany Lion’s wish for the upcoming game on December 21st doesn’t help SMU’s case. 

Among the four playoff games happening in the first round, the SMU-Penn State game could be most impacted by weather. Here is how Philadelphia Eagles RB and former Penn State player Saquon Barkley responded on “if he’s excited for Penn State’s CFP game vs. SMU” as posted on X on December 16. He said, “Yes I am. Hopefully it snows. A White Out in the snow? That’s be awesome.”

With Penn State securing the No. 6 spot in the playoff R1, they won a home-field advantage over SMU. Now, Rhett Lashlee and co will leave behind an adaptable Texas weather and travel to State College for the playoff game at Beaver Stadium on Saturday. As of the current forecast by weather.com, the temperature at State College is projected to fall between 13-29 degrees on Saturday. There is no snow indicator right now but the forecast could change in the next few days. 

Both Penn State and SMU are coming off a conference title defeat against Oregon in the Big Ten and Clemson in the ACC, respectively. They’re both 11-2 but as senior betting analyst Bill Speros observed, SMU will suffer the impact of nature. He wrote, “The Mustangs fell behind 24-7 against Clemson before almost forcing OT. SMU felt a chill in Charlotte. They may freeze on the first day of winter in Happy Valley.” Now we know that Penn State holds the edge over SMU, but weather’s not the only factor.

Penn State is the most advantageous playoff team?

“Penn State is in the most advantageous position out of anyone who made this playoff,” that’s what Josh Pate said. The Nittany Lions are entering as an 8.5-point favorite over the Mustangs, who narrowly clinched a playoff berth over Alabama after their ACC fall. As the CFB analyst also pointed out, “They’re going to host a team from Dallas in 15-degree weather. They’ll be over a touchdown favorite against SMU.” 

James Franklin has more reason to feel optimistic than that. If Penn State wins the first playoff round, they’ll move on to the quarterfinals to play against No. 3 Boise State, who is one of the top 4 seeds to receive a first-round bye. Josh Pate teased, “Guess which team would be favored by nearly two touchdowns there?” Even Adam Breneman feels hopeful for Penn State’s playoff destiny after their Big Ten championship game against the Ducks. 

Still, we’ve seen multiple unforeseen upsets that swept over college football in the last few weeks. The playoffs are going to be no exception. But it would be a huge blow for James Franklin and Penn State if they lose this heavily favored game.