Unless you’ve lived under a rock, you may have encountered hypotheticals pertaining to the SEC during the last couple of weeks. The Cold War at the top of the conference has been a theme of CFB dialogue. Two Saturdays left, and the SEC is wide open for up to 6 teams to claim. Amidst the rising tension, Lane Kiffin allowed his feelings to boil over.

With how things have shaped up, Kiffin’s Ole Miss (8-2), among others, find themselves in a jam. Even the basic logic of winning equals good is questionable. The SEC Championship Game is turning out to be a poisoned chalice. Lane Kiffin spoke about a predicament that stares him and his fellow coaches in the southeast. One that Kirby Smart is quite familiar with. 

“I’ve talked to other coaches, so I’ll just kind of give you the feeling from some other coaches that, you know, they don’t want to be in [the SEC Championship Game],” said coach Kiffin. “The reward to get a bye vs. the risk to get knocked out completely…that’s a really big risk.” This resounding claim gave validation to a notion running across the CFB world.

Essentially, with 6 teams possibly ending up with a 10-2 record, Kiffin and others believe that if they win a place in the Conf. title game, it becomes another obstacle for the team to cross. Losing the game and finishing 10-3 may work against a team. Schools would rather finish the season 10-2 than play a 13th game to eliminate risk. Chris Gordy of the Locked on SEC podcast explained the context in detail. He mentioned a previous incident where Kirby Smart’s Georgia was on the short end of the stick.

Gordy said, “I’ve [heard] some people say the loser of the SEC title game is in no matter what, because you’re the second best team in the SEC, so clearly you deserve to be in. But I don’t know. You go back and look [at] last year. Georgia was undefeated, [then] lost by a touchdown to Alabama in the SEC Championship game. They dropped Georgia out of the top four, dropped them completely out of the 4-team playoff.” This lives fresh in the memories of Kirby Smart and fellow SEC members. Everyone wants to avoid bearing the brunt of their own success.

Which programs are destined to take part in this double-edged sword of a game?

As it stands, it is anybody’s guess which teams will make it to Atlanta. For the chaos to take full effect, certain results need to fall into place. The teams that will majorly shift the dynamic are the two rivals. Ironically, the fate of the SEC depends on one of its newest members.

The Texas Longhorns (9-1, 5-1 in conf. play) currently have separation on top of the conference. They are in pole position to make the SEC finale in their very first season of participation. The Longhorns are yet to play local rivals Texas A&M (8-2, 5-1 in conf. play). This is the only game left where 2 of the 6 teams in contention play each other. If the Aggies manage to upset the Longhorns, there will almost definitely be a 6-way tie in terms of overall record. So much for the CFP restructure that even 12 teams now seem too few!

The head-to-head tiebreakers would be all over the place. Almost everyone in the SEC has beat one another. People who lobbied for an expanded playoff and the elimination of divisions are potentially in for a treat. The mayhem continues as the SEC lives up to its billing as the best conference in the sport.