The Pacific coast has been yearning for some respite through adversity. Southern Cali is in need of a beacon of hope, and sports can help alleviate the pain inflicted by the real world. The wildfires that struck the greater LA area were a travesty. To add to the misery, the USC Trojans are in a state of turmoil, too. They say the night is darkest before dawn, and for good reason. The Lakers just landed a generational talent in Luka Doncic. Peek over the proverbial chorizo,n and Lincoln Riley’s Trojans are also making positive moves. However, these moves are being undercut by issues that are running parallelly.

The USC football program has just onboarded a new GM in Chad Bowden. He joins from arch-rivals and Natty finalists Notre Dame. How did they manage to pull off this coup? With all due respect, trading South Bend for LA is enticing in itself. But there’s also the small matter of the Trojans quadrupling his $250k salary to a cool $1 million. Yes the USC program is a far cry from Notre Dame right now, but Bowden has shown he can awaken a sleeping giant. He’ll just have to contend with the traitor moniker he’s about to be tagged with for joining the other side of the ​​Jeweled Shillelagh trophy. This is a step in the right direction for Lincoln Riley and Co. But peel away this shiny layer, and the crux of his issues rear their ugly head.

You’d be forgiven for thinking a school on the Pacific coast, located in a city that’s probably the biggest sports market in the country, would be the biggest beneficiaries of the NIL and transfer portal era. Attracting high-caliber recruits should be the easy part. Despite these advantages over the competition, USC is falling further behind the 8-ball. Turns out, they’re actually unable to even keep the talent that’s in-house. When Lincoln Riley took over the helm in 2022, the Trojans’ facility saw more 5-stars walk through than downtown Los Angeles. 3 seasons on, absolutely all of them- down to the last one- have left USC. A couple of football savants and revered reporters have voiced their concern about the roster troubles being glossed over through coaching staff and front-office hires.

Over their Until Saturday podcast, The Athletic’s David Ubben and Chris Vannini discussed USC’s off-season. They concurred that Chad Bowden was a good hire. However, they’re unsure if the program is keeping the main thing the main thing. “My question is, for USC, you’re still losing players to the portal. That’s a concern.” said Vannini. “You’ve got all this money that’s being spent on staff.” He pointed to defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who signed a contract extension about a fortnight ago. Lynn is reportedly paid north of $2 million a year. Vannini proceeded to mention the $1 million for Chad Bowden too. “Make sure you have enough money for the players. Because that’s ultimately what is determining who wins and loses.” he remarked. USC’s problems as black and white as this comment makes it seem?

A good GM is requisite for sustained success. Even though Chad Bowden’s contract may be an overpay, it can be viewed as one step backwards for two forwards. Has the allocation of resources been optimal? No. But is Chad Bowden a poor use of them? Not necessarily true either. Bowden has proven his prowess on the recruitment front at Notre Dame. He’ll have to do so for the Trojans as well. That said, he’s walking into a bit of a mess.

Lincoln Riley’s roster loses $3.6 million in value this portal window alone

Only 5 out of the top-15 rated recruits acquired during Lincoln Riley’s tenure remain with USC. This portal window alone, the program has net negative of -$3.6 million in NIL value. 21 players have transferred out, and 11 have come in return. That means the players going out were collectively worth a whopping $3.6 million more than their replacements. That should reverberate concern across the board.  USC’s portal class ranks 67th in the country, according to On3.

In terms of the incoming personnel, the most promising ones are on the defensive line. Lincoln Riley’s pass rush and ability to get opposition QBs off timing has been a huge reason for their 7-6 season. Transfers Keeshawn Silver and Jamaal Jarrett should help that. But elsewhere, it’s looking rather bleak. The exits of Duce Robinson, the two Branch brothers, and Quinten Joyner, among others, have thrown coach Riley into a precarious situation.

It appears that Lincoln Riley remains safe in his capacity for now. However, the sheen from his stint in Oklahoma dissipates the further along we get from it. He’s losing built-up credit in his reserve. Not just with the program but with the fanbase. That QB whisperer monicker needs to awaken. Riley will have to turn things around before it runs out. He’d hope Chad Bowden can help him reign in this spiraling ship. “I think having somebody whose job it is to suss [players] out. Versus like the head coach- Just every 5-star to get to my office, we need to get this guy. You know, figure out what you’re going to use your money on…I think that’s for [Bowden] to solve, and you got to figure that out.” said David Ubben.