New Metric Reveals Which 3-Loss SEC Team Makes Playoffs Cut From Alabama, Ole Miss & South Carolina

Tuesday, December 3rd. It comes across as any other random date at first glance. However, it’s a day brimming with a strange concoction of excitement and anticipation among college football fans. This date marks the release of the penultimate CFP rankings. The day of reckoning arrives for playoff contenders as they recock their season grades. An invitation to the annual December dance for some. A nail in the coffin for others. There’s a lot riding on this iteration of the committee’s verdict.

While most schools can make presumptions about where they’ll fall in the pecking order, there are a handful on edge. The teams on edge fall into two factions. Those peeking over their shoulder from inside, and those lingering on the periphery, waiting to pounce at an opportunity. That opportunity has been afforded to them.

Mario Cristobal and his Miami Hurricanes are firmly in the former category. Their 2nd loss in 3 games has meant doubts have surfaced over their playoff credibility. These doubts are the loudest in the southeast. 3 teams in the SEC—all with the same 9-3 record—are hoping to replace the Canes. Alabama, South Carolina, and Ole Miss all have legitimate cases to get in. So who’s the likeliest to punch their ticket? A source of reason has crunched the numbers and made its conclusion.

According to CBS Sports’ data-driven SportsLine model, the Alabama Crimson Tide has a 49.4% chance to be in the CFP. A figure that the Crimson Tide would’ve perhaps grabbed with both hands after their loss to Oklahoma. Meanwhile, SCal and Ole Miss will be disappointed to know their standing. They’ve been given an 18.3% and 4.3% chance, respectively. It appears that Lane Kiffin’s plea was in vain after all. A huge margin of difference in the hierarchy of these 3. One would assume Alabama will be the 9-3 SEC team of choice if a spot opens up. 

These numbers will be converted to 100%, not just as per the decree of the committee. There are many other facets at play. The committee may prefer Bama, but a berth just may never open up. That depends on how the teams in the conference championship games navigate through them.

ACC Championship Game holds the key to the entry for these SEC teams

8 teams in the top 12 are at 99.9% probability or above, according to SportsLine. That leaves 4 spots to fill. SMU, Boise State, and Iowa State are given the next best odds. This is based on the model expecting those 3 teams to win their respective conferences and secure an auto-bid. If that holds true, only one spot will remain open. Which will, seemingly, be filled by Alabama. This is just a straightforward scenario.

If SMU loses to Clemson in the ACC Championship game, that opens a whole separate can of worms. According to many, it could mean both teams are given a playoff spot. Clemson as a conference champ, and SMU as a high-ranked team inside the top 12. This will mean none of the 9-3 SEC teams get in.

Alabama, South Carolina, and Ole Miss will have to hope SMU wins. But before that, they’ll have to hope the committee shows them some love. Whoever is highest in the pecking order among themselves has a great chance to get into the inaugural 12-team CFP. The first of these two-step processes will resolve itself tonight.