The Oklahoma Sooners’ first season in the SEC post-realignment was underwhelming, to put it lightly. Apart from results on the field, OU also lost traction on the recruiting front. Some of the sheen wore off this historic blueblood program. A below .500 year inadvertently caused players to perceive them in a different light, lower down the hierarchy. As many as 29 players left Norman through the transfer portal this offseason. To his credit, Brent Venables managed to subsidize this depletion of personnel fairly well. Of the 15 incoming portal acquisitions, it’s QB John Mateer who invokes the most confidence heading into the 2025 season.

John Mateer has transferred over from Washington State after 3 years with the Cougars. 2 of which came as back-up to Heisman finalist Cam Ward. The quarterback carousel is perpetually rotating and picks up speed this time of year. Mateer replaces former 5-star Jackson Arnold, who himself has moved across the southeastern faction to Auburn. In theory, the only way for Mateer to take the team is up.

The Sooners had the worst passing offense in the SEC last season. Venables has tried addressing this with not just his new QB but also by uprooting his offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle. Transfer QBs can have growing pains, but this familiarity lends to a more seamless transition. With these factors and more baked in, On3’s Andy Staples and Ari Wasserman have vocalized their expectations for John Mateer and OU. There’s a consensus feeling of positivity. Albeit not from every corner of the media.

Ari Wasserman relayed his list of 10 “CFB teams with breakout potential.” When discussing it over the On3 YouTube channel, he realized an oversight. “OU is a team that probably should have been on that list because I actually think that OU is going to have a very, very good year,” he said. “They have a chance with John Mateer and [Ben] Arbuckle.”

Andy Staples concurred with the sentiment that the Sooners are due for an upturn. Largely owing to John Mateer’s arrival. “We saw a lot of John Mateer last year. My thing is, whoever got John mate [was] going to be really good on offense,” he remarked. Ari proceeded to place some very high praise on the QBs shoulders. Praise that carries with itself a weight of expectation. 

“John Mateer might be somebody who’s in New York next year, like, that’s where we’re at with him,” he said. Ironically, the 2026 NFL Draft will be the first one not to take place in New York in about a decade. But the point still stands. “They’re going to be better. I’m expecting a lot, and it’s a big year for Brent Venables,” he added. This affirmation from a couple of revered analysts will go some way in dispelling concern around Norman. The concern stemmed from one Oklahoma insider and homer laying doubt on John Mateer’s ability to translate over to the treacherous SEC.

Oklahoma insider remains in doubt over John Mateer’s passing proficiency

John Mateer stuffed the stat sheet better than Cam Ward ever did with Washington State. He comes to OU off the back of a season with 3,139 yards and 29 TDs through the air. A regression is on the board and even fair to preempt since he’s going to face a tougher schedule, tighter defenses, and more devastating pass rushers. Over the Locked on Sooners podcast, John Williams is airing on the side of caution. 

“John Mateer has to be the John Mateer that we saw last year for Washington State. Actually, he’s got to be better. He’s got to be more consistent.” said Williams. He even delved into some perceived holes in the player’s game. Williams didn’t mince his words either. “He had some stinking passing performances last year. Some games where he did not have a very high completion percentage.”

Mateer’s completion rate on the season was a mediocre 64%. “If you’re going to be the quarterback at Oklahoma, if you’re going to lead Oklahoma back to the playoffs, back into title contention, you cannot afford to have some of these passing performances that John Mateer had against some of the defenses Oklahoma will play.”

Placing expectations of title contention is perhaps borderline disingenuous on a team that lost its bowl game to a service academy. As shorthanded as they were personnel-wise after the mass exodus through the portal. If Venables’ defense holds, double-digit wins are a much more realistic goal, and even that will be an uphill task traversing the SEC schedule. 

A new era has commenced down in Norman. The realignment and roster upheaval are at the forefront of this evolution. and now this verdict by Kevin Stitts. It remains to be seen how the program retaliates after laying and getting beat down all of 2024. The Oklahoma Sooners are, at least in theory and precedent, simply too big to fail. They’ve utilized the offseason to retool with John Mateer. Now it’s time to regroup and re-establish this blueblood to its pedestal.