National Analyst Clarifies Lincoln Riley’s USC Future After Double Blow Announced For HC

College football moves at warp speed, and Lincoln Riley’s still figuring that out after his impressive run at Oklahoma. He was consistently winning and making playoff appearances with the Sooners—the man never lost more than two games in a season and snagged three playoff spots. But it looks like that magic didn’t quite make it past Norman. That massive 10-year, $110 million deal he signed at South Carolina back in 2022? Yeah, that kind of cash means you have to prove a whole lot when you’re trying to replicate success. And a 26-14 record definitely is not it. Could 2025 be the make-or-break year for the 41-year-old coach to show what he’s really got?

Riley’s tenure with the Trojans began with an 11-3 season, followed by a slight dip to 8-5 and then a further decline to 7-6. This trajectory wasn’t the plan, and the upcoming season carries significant weight for his future at USC. A concerned USC fan even left a voicemail with On3 saying, “I’m a USC fan, and it’s time for him to deliver. Put up or shut up because if he doesn’t deliver then, yeah, I think he’s definitely on the hot seat.” The pressure? Yeah, it’s there.

While the on-paper decline under Riley seems stark, J.D. PicKell of On3 offers a broader perspective: “Lincoln Riley now—when you look at what he’s done on paper—it has been a steady decline….the numbers on paper I don’t believe indicate the job he’s done at USC. My hope is that the powers that be around USC understand that….I think that you look closer and contextualize those three years have been for USC, I think there’s more to it than what meets the eye. So, the records gotten worst every year; I don’t think USC’s gotten worst every year.”

Indeed, Riley’s arrival in 2022 sparked immediate improvement, elevating USC from a 4-8 record to 11-3. The team quickly regained national attention with a potent offense, spearheaded by Heisman winner Caleb Williams. However, defensive vulnerabilities proved to be a recurring issue. The Pac-12 Championship Game saw Utah stifle their playoff aspirations, and a Cotton Bowl collapse against Tulane, despite holding a significant lead late in the game, further highlighted these struggles. These defensive woes continued into the 2023 season, resulting in a 7-5 regular season finish, Riley’s worst as a head coach.

Yet, as PicKell points out, context matters: “But the Pac-12 was the best conference in college football that year. The Pac-12 had four teams finish in the top 20. Two of those teams finished in the top 10. One of those teams made the College Football Playoff and played for the National Championship in Washington, and that was a team that USC played to a 10-point game.” Even discounting the close game against eventual finalist Washington, the Pac-12’s overall strength that year cannot be ignored.

PicKell elaborated, “Now that’s a year where you don’t give credit for playing Washington to a 10-point game, like it is what it is. I do think, though, you finish that season, you watch the credits roll, and you just kind of chalk it up to the defense not being good at all, like defense was abysmal.” While USC ended 2023 with a Holiday Bowl victory over Louisville, their national rankings in points allowed (115th) and average yards per play (124th) underscored their defensive deficiencies.

Despite battling injuries, USC showed defensive progress in 2024, largely attributed to the hiring of D’Anton Lynn from UCLA. However, a new challenge emerged: an inability to close out games. The Trojans held fourth-quarter leads in eleven consecutive contests, only to see victory slip away. Despite this, PicKell sees underlying potential: “For me, it’s hard to definitively say that they are in a decline. I don’t know if I would align with that. So to answer your question here, do they need to make a playoff run, or otherwise he’s on the hot seat? I don’t think I agree with that.” Nevertheless, another crucial factor looms large for Riley—recruiting.

Lincoln Riley’s recruiting battles

With the clock ticking, USC and Lincoln Riley face increasing pressure to bolster their recruiting efforts following a disappointing 2024. For Riley, this next year is make-or-break if he wants to stay seen as an elite coach. The recent hires of solid recruiters Eric Henderson and Doug Belk, along with GM Chad Bowden’s local talent push, could give them a nice lift. However, spring practice visits are no guarantee of future commitments.

The current recruiting spotlight is on four-star defensive lineman Tomuhini Topui, who recently decommitted from Oregon in favor of USC. While On3’s Steve Wiltfong and Chad Simmons indicate USC as the frontrunner, they face significant competition. Defending national champions Ohio State, under Ryan Day, have entered the fray, intensifying the battle for Topui’s pledge.

As shared by the USCJ Lost In Tha Sauce Podcast, “A family member hit me up and said that there’s another team that could possibly come to play… and that is Ohio State. So, they’re a big-time player. I was told that he’s supposed to be taking a visit there. Matter of fact, one of the family members that hit me up said that Epi (Sitanilei) from St. John Bosco is supposed to be hosting him when he goes there.”

Even with Ohio State making a serious run, USC’s got a few things going in their favor with Topui. He’s an LA kid through and through, always dreamed of being a Trojan. Plus, his bond with defensive line coach Shaun Nua could be a big deal. But hold up, it’s not just that battle—they’re also sweating over Malakai Lee, that highly-rated four-star offensive tackle (92.37 on On3).

This 6-foot-7, 310-pound beast is one of the top O-line prospects for ’26, and word just dropped from Tim Watts at ‘Bama Online’ that Lee swung by Alabama. So yeah, looks like Riley’s facing a double whammy with both Bama and the Buckeyes sniffing around, even though he’s managed to snag that No. 2 spot in the 2026 recruiting class for now. Whether Lincoln Riley’s plan to build a killer team through recruiting actually turns into wins on the field this season is still up in the air, but it’s definitely going to decide what his future at USC looks like.