Think draft season is just about the blue-chip prospects? Think again! Analyst Mel Kiper is back in the lab, cooking up some draft stock surprises. Just a few weeks back, he had Cam Ward going No. 1 to the Titans, then threw a curveball suggesting Abdul Carter to the Browns in the first round—as if a quarterback-starved team didn’t even exist! But while most draft analysts are focusing on the top talents like those two, in addition to a few other names, Kiper is hyping up someone whom he believes is quite underrated.

Missouri Tigers’ wide receiver Luther Burden III is currently pegged as a second-round pick. But Mel Kiper isn’t buying the hype—or lack thereof. Burden was a top-10 darling in mock drafts last year, but had a drop in performances from his sophomore season to his junior one, as he posted fewer receptions and touchdowns, along with nearly half of the receiving yardage. Last month, it was only Kiper who stated, “No, he is not (a lock to go in the first round anymore).” But now, he is urging NFL teams not to sleep on his talents.

Kiper Jr. joined Field Yates for “First Draft” as part of NFL on ESPN on Thursday and talked about Burden III’s draft prospects. He emphasized that he still ranks Burden as the fifth-best wide receiver prospect.

“This Missouri team was built on that late in the game. Brady Cook hurt and comes back. It was the South Carolina game. Late in games, Luther Burden III still came up big in some of those games. Maybe, he was quiet. Theo Wease Jr. was being the guy, and all of a sudden, there’s Luther Burden III showcasing what kind of talent he has. I tell you what, he is the most overlooked player that has this kind of skill set and talent and has shined big at the collegiate ranks than Luther Burden III.” Now, that’s not just talk; it’s straight facts.

Luther Burden didn’t just land in Missouri; he hit the ground running. Originally committed to Oklahoma, this five-star recruit from East St. Louis Senior High flipped to the Tigers and wasted zero time making his presence felt. As a true freshman, he started 10 of 13 games, hauling in 46 passes for 398 yards and six touchdowns. His production exploded in his sophomore campaign, where he snagged 86 catches for a whopping 1,212 yards and nine touchdowns in 2023. These numbers had him ninth in yardage and tied for tenth in catches nationally, while being second in catches and third in yardage, earning him first-team All-SEC honors.

However, after that blazing start, Burden faced some headwinds as Missouri’s offensive game plan leaned more heavily on the ground game in his junior season. He had a dip in his stats last season to 61 catches, 676 yards, and six touchdowns. He still led the program in catches and touchdowns but was second to Wease Jr. in yardage by 208.

Despite his struggles, Burden opted to jump into the NFL Draft, showcasing his elusiveness with an impressive 30 forced missed tackles in 2024 and averaging a solid 6.1 yards after the catch.

While Missouri’s style might have capped his numbers, Burden’s agility, control, and pure speed allowed him to turn seemingly small plays into significant gains. His skills are undeniable, making him a prime target for any team hunting for a playmaker. Still, last season it looked like regression on his part, and he saw his draft stock tumble, going from a first-round pick to a day two possibility.

And that’s precisely the injustice Mel Kiper is trying to spotlight, declaring, “I say that for this reason—you talk about wide receivers, he’s red hot. Matthew Golden’s red hot. You watch Luther Burden III. This kid’s got a lot of talent. Ball in his hands, trying to tackle him, what he can do there—you see skill, you see talent. And again, we’re pushing him into the second round. That’s where everybody now sees him, right? Yes, I thought maybe Dallas at one point, and now we’re saying second round. So again, and nobody’s even mentioned his name in the late first.”

It is easy to see why Kiper Jr. is high on Burden. Apart from recording 192 receptions for 2,263 yards and 21 touchdowns across three seasons for the Tigers, he showed his versatility by recording a punt return touchdown in his freshman year and rushing for 234 yards and four touchdowns during his tenure.

His speed and acceleration allow him to elude defenders and create separation. Additionally, his ability to generate significant yards after the catch adds another dimension to the offense.

Burden III has a chance to slip into the late first round. The Dallas Cowboys remain in need of another playmaker in the passing game. Their only addition at wide receiver so far has been veteran Parris Campbell, who joined on a one-year deal as a free agent on March 15. In recent years, Dallas has struggled to find stability at the No. 2 receiver spot. Veteran Brandin Cooks spent the past two seasons with the team before departing in free agency to sign with the New Orleans Saints.

If Jerry Jones and Co. opt for Burden III, he could very well provide a young, dynamic option to pair with All-Pro WR CeeDee Lamb. Apart from Dallas, other destinations such as Washington, Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Cincinnati have been brought up as Burden III’s NFL home. Last year, a number of NFL scouts saw him in action from the Faurot Field press box, which suggests there might yet be interest in him come April’s Draft day.

While Kiper Jr. seems to be endorsing the WR, it was he who in February, predicted Burden to be a second-round pick. “Let’s face it. There’s a lot to like about Luther Burden III – from what happened in 2023, the glimpses this year. So, one team loves him? He still goes in the first round. But, right now, the consensus of the calls I made is early to mid-second round,” he said.

But guess what? Field Yates’ mock draft has him landing in a sweet spot where he could make an immediate impact.

Yates’ Texans-Luther Burden prediction

While Luther Burden’s draft stock might be a bit of a rollercoaster, Field Yates has just pinpointed a potentially perfect fit for him in Houston. In his Mock Draft 3.0, Yates projects the Missouri standout to team up with the Texans, lining up alongside their receiver, Nico Collins, who signed a $72 M three-year contract with them. Burden, a 6-foot playmaker known for his reliable hands, excels at running those quick slants and routes, consistently outmaneuvering defenders. Plus, he’s got a track record of success as a returner on special teams, a key area where Houston could use a boost in 2025.

If this pairing becomes reality, opposing defenses are going to have their hands full. Despite the Texans’ recent success with back-to-back 10-7 seasons and two playoff victories, they still have some gaps on their roster that are preventing them from making a serious Super Bowl push.

That’s why their first-round draft pick carries so much weight. Investing in affordable, young talent is crucial, and Burden could be a vital piece in filling that need. Plus, Houston’s receiving corps is looking for reinforcements, especially with Stefon Diggs potentially hitting free agency and Tank Dell’s health situation still up in the air. To keep their offensive firepower going strong, adding a weapon like Burden just makes good sense for the Texans.

Now, Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport has thrown another log on the fire regarding Houston’s WR room, noting, “The Houston Texans added Christian Kirk to the wide receiver room, but with Tank Dell set to potentially miss most (if not all) of the 2025 season, C.J. Stroud needs a boundary wide receiver opposite Nico Collins. It’s a void that Harris could fill quite nicely.”

And let’s be real, Luther Burden has all the tools to be that guy filling that void. So, the big question remains: will Houston actually pull the trigger and land this exceptional, yet underrated talent from Missouri? We’ll just have to wait and see if Kiper and Yates are onto something special!