The beaches of southern California are transpiring into quicksand for USC Trojans’ head coach, Lincoln Riley. As hard as he tries to escape the hole he’s sinking into, he seems to get hauled further in. He and the program are seeking to put this dismal season, their first in the Big 10, behind them. However, the off-season has entailed more of the same. 

You’d be forgiven for thinking a school on the Pacific coast, located in a city that’s probably the biggest sports market in the country, would be the biggest beneficiary of the NIL and transfer portal era. Attracting high-caliber recruits should be the easy part. Add to that Lincoln Riley’s reputation as a quarterback whisperer. Despite these discernible advantages, USC is falling further behind the 8-ball. Sure, they’ve onboarded 5-star QB Husan Longstreet. However, a couple of other targets have thwarted Riley’s approaches to join Longstreet and Jayden Maiava in the quarterback room.

About a fortnight ago, word spread out from Rocky Top that Tennessee Vol Nico Iamaleava may be on his way to USC. Tennessee lost as many as 5 WRs to the transfer portal, and Iamaleava naturally wasn’t thrilled. He relayed some cryptic, controversy-ridden messages via social media. Turns out, that was only smoke and mirrors. With that off-shoot nipped in the bud, Lincoln Riley pivoted to a more far-sighted view. His focus pivoted towards the No.1 QB in the 2026 class. But alas, he’s coming up short on that front as well. The way that particular recruitment is progressing for the Trojans has left On3’s Josh Newberg bemused.

5-star Jared Curtis, ironically a Tennessee native himself, has named his top 6 schools. This includes 3 schools that he’ll be making official visits to in June. Are the USC Trojans in this exclusive club? They aren’t even in the 6. “Little surprised not to see USC in this mix.” said Josh Newburg over the On3 YouTube channel. “I thought USC would at least make his top 6, but they do not.” The six suitors include Alabama, Ohio State, Auburn, South Carolina, Oregon, and Georgia. Curtis shall visit the latter 3. Pretty much all these schools are of a certain ilk, an uppish echelon. One that USC is at the risk of exiting with how the Lincoln Riley era is panning out.

Cast your minds back to coach Riley with the Oklahoma Sooners. He led OU to 4 conf. championships in 5 years. 4 of his quarterbacks are NFL starters today, and 3 won the Heisman. This did translate to USC for a while, with Caleb Williams whom he brought along with him via the portal. The same portal has circled around to bite him. He’s lost his best receiver, Zachariah Branch. In fact, USC has lost at least 19 players to the portal already. The sheen from his stint in Oklahoma dulls the further along we get from it. He’s losing built-up credit in his reserve, and the Trojans fanbase is livid. This disdain was echoed by one prominent member of CFB media, whose words won’t fall on deaf ears.

Lincoln Riley under duress from fans and the media alike after a series of backward steps

Under Lincoln Riley, USC has had a conspicuous downward spiral year after year. They’ve gone from 11 wins to 8 and now to 7. It only appears to be getting worse. This recruitment cycle has been an unmitigated disaster. Only 5 out of the top-15 rated recruits that joined under Riley now remain at USC. National CFB analyst Josh Pate has aired concern over the trajectory of the program. Concern that has been simmering along the West Coast for a while.

“USC appears to be collapsing before our eyes,” he remarked. “I don’t like to speak in hyperbole. I don’t like to jump to conclusions. Handily, I think it’s why I’ve taken this long to speak this directly…They’re in major trouble. They don’t have good enough players.” For a program of this stature and a coach perceived as the next big thing not long ago, this is a massive indictment.

The Trojans faithful have been echoing their disgruntlement towards Lincoln Riley prevalently and for a while. Josh Pate’s assessment is a culmination of their sentiment. Coach Riley’s job security remains safe for now. But as aforementioned, the sheen is wearing off. The seat he occupies is only getting warmer and The Cali Sun isn’t the only reason why. An upturn in the mood around the program and results on the gridiron is requisite.