Jaxson Dart’s NFL Fate Takes a Turn as $5.1B Franchise Warned of Repeating Baker Mayfield Blunder

You know how it goes; someone’s always making a surprise jump in those mock drafts. But Jaxson Dart? Top 10! Yeah, you heard that right. His draft story just flipped. He went from a solid SEC quarterback, a potential second-rounder, to suddenly, everyone’s acting like they knew he’d be a first-round pick all along—‘I told you so!’ Dart, who stuck with Ole Miss, worked his tail off, and delivered those highlight plays, is now a hot commodity. The NFL Draft hype machine has kicked into overdrive, turning him from a reliable college quarterback into a must-have. He was key to those 10-3 and 11-2 seasons, and now, with the NFL in his sights, the buzz is deafening. But is this sudden rise real, or just another draft-season illusion?

Last month, Dan Orlovsky tossed a grenade into the mix with a bold prediction: Dart’s a first-round lock. Suddenly, mock drafts are buzzing. Mel Kiper, for instance, has Dart as the No. 3 quarterback, landing him with the New Orleans Saints at No. 9. That’s a huge jump for a guy who was previously pegged as a second-rounder.

But Dan Patrick isn’t buying the hype, hitting X with a pointed critique: “Jackson Dart hasn’t really done anything since, I don’t know, December. Maybe, you know, work out in a really good season. That’s, I’m always amazed when you go, the guy didn’t do anything, unless it’s a pro day or your combine, you know. But it played well against Duke in the bowl game, okay? But now all of a sudden, people are opening their eyes, and this is what’s going to happen. You’re going to get a lot of analysts to go.”

It’s true, Mel Kiper’s rankings have set the football world abuzz. He justifies Dart’s No. 9 spot, pointing out the Saints’ situation. They’ve restructured Derek Carr’s contract, securing him for another season, but new head coach Kellen Moore might be looking to groom a young quarterback for 2025, ready to take over in 2026. “I’m hearing more and more first-round buzz on Dart, and New Orleans seems like a good fit,” Kiper added.

Dart’s talent is undeniable. He thrived in Lane Kiffin’s RPO system, tearing up defenses with his arm and legs. Last season, he racked up 4,279 passing yards, 655 rushing yards, and 29 touchdowns, with only six interceptions. His performance against Duke, with 27 of 35 passes completed for 404 yards and four touchdowns, was a showcase.

However, Dan Patrick raises valid concerns about Dart’s inconsistencies, particularly his pocket presence. He was sacked on 18.6% of his pressured dropbacks last season, the third-worst rate among the top 10 quarterbacks. That’s not just a stat; it’s a red flag.

But Patrick isn’t dismissing Dart’s NFL potential. “I think he is not as athletic as Cam Ward. I think he’s more athletic than Shedeur Sanders, but it’s in the eye of the beholder. Does he fit with what you’re trying to do? That’s the key. You have to get the right quarterback for you. Not a quarterback.” He’s right. Remember the Baker Mayfield hype? Teams need to look beyond the buzz and focus on the player’s fit. And that’s exactly what this $5.1 billion franchise is determined to do.

Uncertainty surrounds Jaxson Dart’s NFL future

The Cleveland Browns hold the second overall pick this draft, and Jaxson Dart is the only quarterback they’d even consider over Shedeur Sanders. But Cleveland.com’s Mary Kay Cabot sees the writing on the wall. “They’ve spoken so highly of Shedeur Sanders, and Sanders has left such a trail of Browns’ breadcrumbs, that it still seems to me that drafting him at No. 2 overall is the most likely scenario. The only curveball here could be if the Browns actually like Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) better than Sanders. For now, I’m still thinking the ‘Legendary’ one at two.” So, yes, there’s a slim chance Dart could be their second choice if they pass on Sanders.

However, the Browns might steer clear of Jaxson Dart for the very reason Baker Mayfield didn’t work out in Cleveland—his fourth-quarter struggles.

Cleveland.com’s Tim Bielik didn’t hold back, calling it a major red flag. “A big problem and a borderline red flag for me is that he doesn’t seem to play as well as his peers when it comes to fourth quarter QB rating. So many NFL games come down to the fourth quarter, and you simply must play well in clutch situations to win those games,” Bielik wrote.

And it’s not just talk. Last season, Jaxson Dart threw four interceptions in the fourth quarter, two of which came in the final two minutes against Florida, a crucial game for their playoff hopes. This echoes Baker Mayfield’s issues. As Bielik pointed out, Mayfield’s inability to deliver in crunch time was a key reason Cleveland moved on. “It matters for the Browns because we have to remember that part of the case against keeping Baker Mayfield long term was that he had problems coming through in the clutch, particularly in 2021.” And that’s a risk the Browns are unlikely to take again.

So, it’s a bittersweet moment for Jaxson Dart. His draft stock is rising, but his fourth-quarter inconsistencies are raising serious concerns. We’ll have to wait and see how it all plays out.