The USC Trojans’ first year in the Big Ten has been a dismal one. The beaches of southern California are transpiring into quicksand for head coach Lincoln Riley. As hard as he tries to escape this proverbial quicksand, he seems to be hauled further in. Both on and off the gridiron, things are spiraling out.  As the Trojans seek to put this year behind them and move towards 2025, they face tribulations in traversing their path.

You’d be forgiven for thinking a school on the Pacific coast, located in a city that’s probably the biggest sports market in the country, would be the biggest beneficiary of the NIL and transfer portal era. Attracting high-caliber recruits should be the easy part. Turns out, they’re actually unable to even keep the talent that’s in-house. When Lincoln Riley took over the helm in 2022, the Trojans’ facility saw more 5 stars than downtown LA. 3 seasons on, absolutely all of them- down to the last one- have left USC. This is off the back of a .500 season. Things look really bleak, and one CFB savant concurs.

Analyst Josh Pate, during his namesake YouTube show, aired concern over the trajectory of the program. “USC appears to be collapsing before our eyes,” he remarked. “I don’t like to speak in hyperbole. I don’t like to jump to conclusions. Handily, I think it’s why I’ve taken this long to speak this directly. They’ve lost 19 total players…They’re in major trouble. They don’t have good enough players.” This recruitment cycle has been an unmitigated disaster indeed. Only 5 out of the top-15 rated recruits procured during Lincoln Riley’s tenure remain at USC. They’ve lost the likes of QB Malachi Nelson and corner Domani Jackson among a plethora of other pieces. Josh Pate also voiced his thoughts about whether he projects Lincoln Riley to steady this sinking ship.

“It’s very popular in this business to just shout on a megaphone and have definitive takes. I don’t know that there’s a definitive stance to be taken here. I don’t think it’s guaranteed Lincoln Riley is going to flame out. It’s certainly not a guarantee right now that he’s going to pull [USC] out of the ditch and they’ll be fine. But if you’re leaning one way or the other, man, I got to lean the way that USC feels a little cooked right now” he said. This decree will not fall on deaf ears among the Trojans’ faithful.

In his previous job at the Oklahoma Sooners, Lincoln Riley was the next big thing in the coaching sphere. Then 34-year-old Riley led the Sooners to 4 conf. championships in 5 years. Riley was viewed as a “quarterback whisperer”. 4 of his quarterbacks are NFL starters today, and 3 won the Heisman, including Caleb Williams, whom he brought along with him to USC via the portal. The same portal has circled around to bite him.

Scrutiny for Lincoln Riley boils over after his failure to keep star player

Under the leadership of Lincoln Riley, USC has had a conspicuous downward spiral year after year. They’ve gone from 11 wins, to 8 and now to 6. This last season coincided with the aforementioned Caleb Williams moving on to the pros. After a season of poor quarterback play, the QB whisperer has his next developmental project in the form of 5-star Husan Longstreet. However, what’s a quarterback without his weapons? Longstreet and the Trojans have just lost the biggest one in their arsenal.

Riley’s woes were epitomized in the last 24 hours or so. Star WR Zachariah Branch became the newest member of the Trojans roster to hit the portal. Now headed into his junior year, Branch was the no.1 receiver of his class. He was also an All-American as a true freshman. Branch is inarguably one of the best pass-catchers in the country and was certainly USC’s best skill position player on that side of the ball. This comes off the back of fellow 5-star receiver Duce Robinson entering the portal.

Losing Zachariah Branch has turned up the heat on Lincoln Riley. The fanbase is echoing their disgruntlement, and Josh Pate’s statements are a culmination of their sentiment. It appears that Lincoln Riley remains safe in his disposition for now. He partly has his $110 million 10-year contract and, by extension, $88 million buy out to thank for this perceived safety. However, the sheen from his stint in Oklahoma dissipates the further along we get from it. He’s losing built-up credit in his reserve. Lincoln Riley will have to turn things around before it runs out.