Can one big flaw tank a top-3 prospect’s draft stock? For a long time in the mock drafts, everyone had the Giants with that No. 3 pick practically locked in on taking a quarterback. But now they’ve got Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Tommy DeVito in the mix—so why not snag a defensive stud? NFL scouts and GMs were itching to see this one defensive playmaker, a guy everyone’s been talking about, finally hit the field. But it was a bit of a letdown. The Giants’ target was there at his Pro Day, but he didn’t actually work out. He just stood on the sidelines, still nursing that shoulder he messed up in the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State.

Abdul Carter’s agent, Drew Rosenhaus, reassured that the pass rusher was on track with his rehab. “He may still do a workout for teams sometimes in mid-April,” he said. That stress fracture in his right foot kept him away from participating at the NFL Combine and now, his non-participation at Penn State’s Pro Day. But aside from his injury issues, another red flag emerged.

In a new episode on AlexRollinsNFL on March 31, Alex Rollins broke down the tape and didn’t mince words. “There is not a prospect in the 2025 NFL draft with a more bipolar skill set than Abdul Carter,” he said. He first stated his positives, highlighting his 12 sacks, 24 tackles for loss, and his elite bend and diverse arsenal of finesse moves. “But on the negative side, he lacks the power to reach his full potential,” Rollins added. “Is constantly falling on the ground. I question if he will ever be a complete pass rusher, which would render him unworthy of a top five pick.” And he didn’t just stop there. 

Despite Abdul Carter flexing his versatility from a linebacker to a DE this past season, Rollins’ analysis gave a big concern to the 32 NFL teams. He highlights the glaring flaw in the defender’s game, which is his inability to blend power with finesse. “The main thing is his complete failure to use power in his rushes like at all with all his ghost moves and combos off of him,” the analyst pointed out. Right now, Abdul Carter is relying almost entirely on finesse moves, like ghost rushes and combo counters, without mixing in a power element. That makes him predictable and easy to neutralize. 

This 6-foot-3, 250-pound defensive star brings serious size to the table, and the Nittany Lions have used him all over the defensive line—lining him up as a three-technique and also having him rush from under center while standing up. As Rollins explained the nuanced approach to pass rushing, “You’re reacting in the moment to whatever the tackle’s giving you and then you do the opposite,” Rollins said. “He sets quickly outside to cut off speed. You hit him with power and push him straight back. He hunkers down in one spot to take on your bull rush. That’s when the ghost and bend around the edge move works perfect. But without one, the other won’t work against NFL-caliber linemen.”

The thing with Abdul Carter right now is that he seems to only have one side of that equation. Against stronger and more technically refined NFL offensive linemen, relying on a single approach might not cut it. However, even with this limitation, his raw talent is plain to see.

Abdul Carter—Boom or bust? 

Abdul Carter is a talent no NFL team would want to miss. He was named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year and recorded career highs in sacks and TFLs. His ability to line up as an outside linebacker (317 snaps) and even shift inside (87 snaps) speaks of his versatility. And he has the confidence and knows his potential is limitless. “This was my first year of playing a new position,” he revealed. “And I feel like I was the best at it. Not only I dominated at it, so like the sky’s the limit for me.”

NFL teams aren’t ignoring those numbers. CBS Sports has him going No. 2 overall to the Cleveland Browns. Meanwhile, Pro Football Focus projects him at No. 3 to the Giants, per Josh Liskiewitz’ latest mock draft. “It’s hard not to see some Micah Parsons in Carter,” Liskiewitz said. “(He) not only wears the same No. 11 but also pops off the screen nearly every play due to being a rare caliber athlete.” Giants’ brass privately met with him on Pro Day, showing serious interest.

But in today’s NFL, potential alone doesn’t guarantee success. Can Abdul Carter refine his game before he steps onto the biggest stage? Or will Rollins’ concerns become true? We’ll soon find out.