From invincibility to the depths of the abyss. FSU entered last season 10th in the national preseason poll, coming off a 13-0 regular season. Things appeared on track for another successful year. However, what transpired was anything but resonant with success. 2-10, bottom of the conference. An unmitigated disaster. A storied program of the Florida State’s ilk cannot afford blips like the one they just had. After all, they’re the big fish in a modest pond that is the ACC. A habitat they’ve been wanting to leave for a while to swim with the sharks. Well, Mike Norvell and his Seminoles may be getting their wish. But then, which conference are they headed to? One plugged-in attorney has an idea.

The mass conference realignment ahead of last season changed College Football on its head. Some of the biggest programs, even bluebloods, chose to leave their bases and then converge elsewhere. The cost of admission was to leave tradition and loyalties on the door. It led to the historic PAC-12 dissipating into thin air. A historic conference that was etched into CFB lore. Yet, it fell victim to modernization and, let’s be frank, money.  A year on from this travesty, the ACC faces the same fate. Stemming from FSU, as well as Clemson, wanting out. Both schools have been involved in separate legal battles to do so. Why? The reasons behind such a seismic move are, of course, convoluted. But in very lay terms-money. 

The ACC has signed an extension with ESPN to broadcast games up till 2036. Each of the members is poised to receive roughly $25 million as dividends initially as part of a $425 million payout. Sure, this number is going to ramp up as years pass. Yet, this payout is way, way less lucrative than what SEC schools, for instance, stand to make. If FSU stays put till 2036, they stand to make over $600 million less combined. Naturally, they fear falling behind the competition. With NIL already king and revenue-sharing around the corner, imagine the handicap on the recruitment front for Mike Norvell to contend with. Things will look a lot like 2024 than ‘23.

Hence, bigger, ambitious brands like FSU are trying to get out of their deal with the ACC. They’ve just been handed a “get out of jail free” card in their attempts. Well, not quite free. But at a discount of over $500 million. The ACC is settling on their long-drawn lawsuits with Florida State as well as Clemson. As part of the settlement, the exit fee for any conf. member comes down from about $700 million to $165 million. Thamel reports that this updated figure “descends by $18 million per year until it’s $75 million in 2030-31 and levels off. The member would leave with their media rights after paying the fee.” In light of this, attorney and FSU fan Doug Rohan appeared on “The Big Mountain Podcast” to discuss the fallout of this settlement. Particularly what it means for Mike Norvell and co.

Rohan summarized the reason for the ACC brass caving rather perfectly. “The ACC was in a difficult spot. For their survival, for their long-term success, they took the guarantee. They took the assurance of knowing, ‘Look. We don’t know what the conference is going to look like in 2040. But we want there to be a conference in 2040′” Doug Rohan touched upon how the conference will fill the void of an FSU, who he thinks will not be there past 2030. Conversely, he proceeded to speak about the Seminoles’- and Norvell’s if he’s still around—own new conference. 

With or sans Mike Norvell, Florida State needs to find a new home

“Florida State still needs to go to one of the other conferences. But when you look at the viewership numbers and look at the brand—again, [FSU} homer as charged—I have to believe [it is] between the Big 10 and the SEC,” claimed Doug Rohan. A couple of things of note here. First, Rohan acknowledges his bias and homerism being baked into this prediction. Secondly, if FSU does indeed leave the ACC or is planning to, then surely they have this mapped out. The Seminoles’ brass must have assurances that they’re a wanted commodity. As such, Rohan elaborated on why the SEC or B1G future of his favorite program isn’t set in stone.

“One of [those conferences] wants Clemson. At least one of them wants Florida State. At least one of them wants UNC, and at least one of them wants Miami. Where do they end up? We have to worry about AAU membership. We have to worry about a host of other considerations.” said Rohan. Yes, even UNC is in the mixer. You’d think this motion of leaving the ACC came about for the Tar Heels because of their new figurehead, Bill Belichick. Except, it’s been in the works for over 2 years.

With all of these realignments expected to be a couple of years down the line, Rohan’s discernment should be taken with a pinch of salt as speculatory. We don’t even know if Mike Norvell will still be FSU head coach when the time rolls about. It’s not like another 2-10 or adjacent year is going to cut it. The sheen of that 13-win season will dull very quickly if there’s no turnaround.

The ACC is taking steps to avoid calamity. But in salvaging the present they may have ruined their future. A dark cloud of uncertainty now renders this Power conference’s future inconspicuous. Just like it does Mike Norvell’s. Well, maybe this massive payment down the line to exit means his own gaudy buyout is too much for FSU to afford. A silver lining indeed for a coach who’s on the hot seat. Coach Norvell will hope to be the one leading the Seminoles into this imminent new era.