A year ago, Quinn Ewers was sitting pretty. Texas’ QB1 was supposed to be the guy — the golden-armed, mullet-rocking, deep-ball-dropping prodigy who’d lead the Longhorns to the promised land and then waltz into the NFL as a first-round pick. But fast forward to now, and things ain’t looking so hot. Injuries, inconsistency, and a playoff dream that got steamrolled by Ohio State have sent his draft stock into a nosedive. And the worst part? He’s staring down a potential $30 million financial gut punch as Joel Klatt warns about the diabolical reality behind his stock dip.

On February 24th, college football analyst Joel Klatt didn’t sugarcoat it on his podcast. “He does an amazing job throwing with touch, great accuracy, and he throws with touch as well or better than anybody else on the list today,” Klatt admitted and gave props. “Because of that, I do think he can rely on that a little bit too much.” Translation? Ewers has got the finesse, but sometimes, he needs to stop playing nice and fire the ball into tight windows. And at the NFL level, that “too much touch” thing? Yeah, that’s a problem as Klatt finds a leak.

Look, Quinn Ewers was supposed to be a first-round lock. Back in May, Pro Football Focus had him as a Top 20 pick. But after an up-and-down 2024 season — highlighted by injuries and an inability to take over big games — he’s now projected as the No. 126 overall pick by PFF. You don’t need to be a math genius to see that’s a major tumble.

And the $30 million part? Yeah, it’s bad. Just ask Jeff Ward, who laid it all out back in December on The Jeff Ward Show. He broke it down like this: Will Levis, the first pick of the second round in 2023, bagged a four-year, $9.5 million deal. Meanwhile, Jayden Daniels — who went 2nd overall to the Commanders — locked in a $37.75 million fully guaranteed deal. That’s a $30 million difference between going in the first round versus the second. “What if you’re Quinn Ewers and you now think you’re going to be a second-round pick?” Ward questioned. “$30 million is a big deal.” No kidding.

The main reason for Quinn Ewers fumbling $30 million apart from his annual injury; Joel Klatt wasn’t just pointing out Ewers’ draft stock collapse — he was diving into the why. The injuries? Obvious. But his biggest concern was something else: touch vs. velocity. “He’s going to have to find some more velocity or at least be willing to step up and really drive the football onto the frame of the wide receiver in some intermediate spots, that’s going to be crucial for him. And I think that’s one of the reasons why he won’t get selected up high.”

Let’s break that down. Throwing with touch means putting just the right amount of arc and finesse on the ball — perfect for deep shots and lobbing passes over defenders. But sometimes, you need to rifle that thing in there before a defender jumps the route. And that’s where Ewers struggles. His intermediate throws — those quick slants, those over-the-middle darts — don’t have enough zip. And in the NFL, that’s an interception waiting to happen.

Breaking down Quinn Ewers’ issue: Touch vs. velocity in the NFL

Joel Klatt’s take on the Quinn Ewers in question is pretty straightforward: He throws with elite touch and accuracy, but sometimes that’s just not enough — especially at the national level. Let’s break it down.

Klatt acknowledges that Quinn Ewers throws with as much or more touch than anyone on his list, which is a major compliment. In simple terms, “throwing with touch” means putting the right amount of arc, finesse, and precision on a pass so that it drops into the receiver’s hands over defenders. Think of those perfectly placed throws that land just out of a defender’s reach — that’s touch (which looks very satisfying to watch on television!) But it ain’t the kind of throw you can constantly make on Sundays.

This skill is especially useful for certain types of passes: fade routes, deep shots, and throws over linebackers in zone coverage. A quarterback with elite touch can make the game look effortless — think Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodriguez dropping a 50-yard bomb into their receiver’s hands without breaking a sweat.

But here’s where Klatt gets critical. While touch is great, you can’t rely on it all the time, especially in the NFL, where windows are much tighter. At the next level, defensive backs react quicker, and linebackers have insane closing speed. A QB who floats too many intermediate passes is going to get picked off — plain and simple.

Klatt points out that instead of driving the football into tight windows, this quarterback throws with too much touch on plays where velocity is needed. Imagine a third-down slant where the receiver is open for half a second — if the throw doesn’t arrive on a rope, that defender is jumping the route for an interception. That’s where Klatt sees a problem.

For Quinn Ewers to be successful at the pro level, he needs to develop more zips on his throws, especially in the intermediate passing game (10-20 yards downfield). That means stepping into throws with a stronger base, generating power from his lower body, and making sure those tight-window passes get to the receiver before defenders can react. Klatt also hints at injury concerns, which could be impacting arm strength. If that’s the case, teams might be hesitant to invest a high draft pick in him.

So what now? Can Quinn Ewers still salvage his draft stock? The answer: Maybe.

If he outshines his throwing skills at the NFL Combine and Pro Day, shows off some unexpected velocity, proves he can stay healthy, and reminds scouts why he was once a top recruit — maybe he can salvage his first-round prospects. The chances of that happening are pretty slim. But if he doesn’t? He’s looking at Day 2 money and a whole lot of what-ifs. Ewers still has time to rewrite that narrative on Pro Day. But right now that $30 million gap between the first and second rounds is looking very real. And unless he fixes his game, NFL teams won’t hesitate to let him fall, even 3rd round with all that injury history.