So it’s finally happening. The Arch Manning era is officially here in Austin. It’s been two long years of waiting, watching, and whispering about when the most hyped recruit of this generation would finally take the reins. And now, it’s go time. Manning enters this season with two starts already under his belt. He stepped up when Quinn Ewers went down last season. And yeah, they were wins — 939 yards, nine TDs, two picks, 108 rushing yards, and four more scores on the ground across nine games. But the real test is coming. 

Let’s be honest here. Everyone sees “Manning” on the jersey and expects magic. Thanks to his legendary family members like Archie, Eli, and Peyton Manning. The Manning magic didn’t even leave analyst Greg McElroy. He said it out loud — “You see the last name Manning, you already assume that this guy is phenomenal, without even watching anything from him so far this year.” But here’s where things get tricky. Fame becomes a double-edged sword. 

A new episode of the College GameDay Podcast on ESPN College Football dropped a heavy dose of reality on April 11. Rece Davis laid it out plainly — “Here’s what I think that’s going to happen with Arch, and it’s unfortunate,” he said. “Because of the attention he’s going to get, he is going to become a fan favorite by those outside of Texas. And others outside of Texas, he is going to be the ultimate villain.” Think about it. This is a straight fact with no sugarcoating. 

Rece Davis nailed it with an analogy. It’s like when everyone hyped a movie so much, by the time you watch it, you’re just looking for reasons not to like it. That’s Arch Manning’s life now. For every fan cheering him on, there’s another waiting to say he’s overrated. “Everything’s going to be amplified,” Davis added. “The dart that he throws in between two defenders for a touchdown is going to be hailed as the greatest pass in the history of college football. And the interception on the misread is going to be ‘see, he’s not good.’” 

It’s not even about Arch Manning as a person. It’s going to be that last name and the spotlight that every throw will be magnified. But well, the Manning gene pool is built for pressure. So, if any kid can handle the chaos, it’s this one. He’s truly walking into a Texas program with massive expectations, though. The Longhorns haven’t sniffed a National Championship since 2005. Last year was a close CFP run that eventually ended with a loss to the eventual champs, Ohio State. The problem this year for Arch Manning is that the team looks different and not necessarily better. 

Can Arch Manning flip the narrative in Texas?

ESPN’s Bill Connelly pointed out the brutal math. “What’s interesting is Texas is projected 7th,” he said, pointing out the SP+ rankings. “That’s first in defense and 28th in offense because, again, there’s no Arch Manning effect. So all it seems is a team that just lost its starting quarterback, it’s top two receiving targets and like four offensive linemen including a consensus All-American and Kelvin Banks Jr.” Steve Sarkisian lost key players like WRs Matthew Golden and Isaiah Bond and CB Jahdae Barron, among others.

The one constant is still the Longhorns’ defense. Pete Kwiatkowski’s unit was elite last season — third in total defense, third in total yards allowed (283.7 YPG), and tied at first in interceptions (22, 1.4 picks per game). But even that group took hits. The D-line? Barryn Sorrell, Bill Norton, Alfred Collins, and Vernon Broughton are all gone. The front seven are practically a new band trying to play the same tune. As Connelly added, “So it’s not a given that Texas is supposed to start at the top of the SEC heap this year.” Another CFP run? Not impossible, but that’s a tricky one.

Oh, and Arch Manning’s first start as QB1? Just a little road trip to Columbus to face the reigning National Champions. No big deal, right? So buckle up. Whether you’re buying the hype or ready to root against it, the Manning show is here.